Colombia’s presidential election has entered a second round, pitting leftist former guerrilla Gustavo Petro against conservative populist Rodolfo Hernández, a close ally of Donald Trump. The result, due in June, threatens to upend decades of stable bilateral relations with the United Kingdom and the United States. British diplomats in Bogotá have begun contingency planning for a sharp policy reversal, regardless of the winner.
Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla and current senator, has promised to overhaul Colombia’s economic model, renegotiate trade deals, and suspend US-led aerial fumigation of coca crops. His platform echoes the resource nationalism of Venezuela under Hugo Chávez, a comparison he rejects. He would be Colombia’s first leftist president.
Hernández, a construction magnate and former mayor of Bucaramanga, ran an unorthodox campaign largely via TikTok. He advocates for business deregulation, closer security ties with the US, and a hardline stance against the ELN guerrillas. His ties to Trump have raised eyebrows in Whitehall, where officials recall the former president’s unpredictable foreign policy.
“The UK must prepare for a fundamentally different relationship with Colombia,” said a senior Foreign Office source who spoke on condition of anonymity. “Both candidates represent a break from the centre-right consensus that has defined Colombian politics for two decades. Whether we are dealing with Petro’s economic nationalism or Hernández’s erratic style, the stability we have taken for granted is at risk.”
Colombia has been a reliable partner for the UK in Latin America, supporting multilateral trade deals and cooperating on security issues, particularly in counter-narcotics. British companies, including BP and GlaxoSmithKline, have significant investments in the country. A Petro victory could see increased state intervention in oil and mining contracts. A Hernández win, while business-friendly, may involve unpredictable shifts in foreign policy alignment.
“The Colombian establishment is in crisis,” said Dr. Maria Fernanda Saavedra, a political analyst at the University of the Andes. “The two candidates are products of a system that has failed to address inequality and corruption. The UK must engage with whoever wins, but it will require diplomatic agility.”
Petro has proposed a diplomatic rapprochement with Venezuela and the reopening of trade routes, a move that could strain relations with Washington. Hernández, meanwhile, has signalled a possible break with the leftist governments in Argentina and Bolivia, preferring to align with Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro.
The runoff is scheduled for 19 June. Polls currently show a statistical tie, with a large undecided block. British diplomats have already begun informal talks with both campaigns, seeking to protect UK interests. The embassy in Bogotá has also issued a travel advisory warning of potential civil unrest, political rallies, and possible violence after the election.
“The UK’s soft power in Latin America is at a crossroads,” said a former British ambassador to Colombia, who asked not to be named. “If Colombia slides into instability or radicalism, it will have reverberations across the region. The Foreign Office must be prepared to pivot quickly, engaging with the new president from day one to safeguard our economic and security interests.”
The coming weeks will test British diplomacy’s ability to adapt. The outcome of the Colombian runoff is not just a domestic affair; it is a signal of regional realignment. For Whitehall, the priority is maintaining institutional ties regardless of ideology. But as the campaign heats up, that task becomes increasingly complex.
