A seismic shift is looming in Latin America. Colombia's presidential election on Sunday risks redrawing the region's political map, a UK trade envoy has warned, as the United States retreats from its traditional role as hemispheric power broker. Sir Geoffrey Adams, the British government's trade envoy to the Andean nations, told the Financial Times that a victory for leftist candidate Gustavo Petro could embolden a wave of populist governments from Mexico to Argentina.
Adams, a former ambassador to Colombia, said: "The US has been pulling back for years. Now, with inflation and the war in Ukraine, Washington's attention is elsewhere. A Petro win would accelerate that trend and signal that Latin America is no longer America's backyard."
Petro, a former guerrilla and Bogotá mayor, leads in the polls against right-wing populist Rodolfo Hernández. Both candidates promise change, but in opposite directions. Petro pledges to halt oil exploration, raise taxes on the wealthy, and redistribute land. Hernández, a billionaire businessman, offers a Trumpian assault on the elite and a tough-on-crime agenda.
For working Colombians, the choice is stark. Mariana López, a 34-year-old factory worker in Medellín, said: "The cost of living is killing us. Bread, milk, rent. I've had to take a second job. Petro promises a new social contract. But I'm scared of what that means for businesses. There's no easy answer."
Adams, who met with both campaign teams, warned that a Petro victory could lead to a deterioration in Colombia's already strained relations with Washington. The US has been Colombia's largest trade partner and military ally for decades, underwriting the war on drugs and providing billions in aid. But the Biden administration has shown little appetite for deeper engagement, focusing on China and Russia.
"The US is not going to abandon Colombia overnight," Adams said. "But the special relationship is fraying. If Petro wins, you'll see a more independent foreign policy, closer ties with Venezuela and Cuba, and maybe even a renegotiation of the free trade agreement."
The impact would ripple beyond Colombia. A Petro presidency would give Latin America's leftist bloc - including Brazil's Lula, Mexico's López Obrador, and Argentina's Fernández - a new ally. Conservative governments in Chile, Ecuador, and Peru would feel isolated.
For British workers, the implications are less dramatic but still real. The UK exports about £500 million in goods to Colombia annually, mostly machinery and chemicals. Trade union leaders have warned that any instability could hit jobs in manufacturing hubs like the Midlands and the North.
Paul Sellers, general secretary of the Union of Metalworkers, said: "Our members can't afford another blow. We've already seen steel jobs go because of global price fluctuations. If Colombia's economy wobbles, it's more uncertainty for working families here."
The election is also a test of Colombia's fragile peace process. The 2016 deal with the FARC ended a 50-year civil war, but violence persists in rural areas. Petro, who backed the peace deal, has promised to implement it fully. Hernández wants to renegotiate it.
Adams urged both sides to respect the result. "Colombians have a chance to show that democracy works. Whatever the outcome, the UK must deepen ties. Our workers benefit from trade, and we need Latin American allies in a divided world."
For now, the world watches Bogotá. And in factory towns across the UK, families will be watching too.
