The bloody rhythm of Colombia’s civil war is quickening. And with a presidential election just months away, British firms with billions of pounds sunk into the country’s oil, mining and infrastructure sectors are sweating. Sources close to the Foreign Office confirm that internal assessments warn of a “significant deterioration” in security, particularly in the rural departments of Cauca and Nariño, where dissident FARC factions and ELN guerrillas are locked in a grisly battle for control of cocaine routes and illegal gold mines.
The violence is not abstract. In the past fortnight alone, two British-linked mining convoys were ambushed in the Catatumbo region. No UK nationals were harmed, but the attacks killed six local guards. The message is clear: the state cannot protect its interests. And as the election campaign heats up, candidates are running on wildly different platforms. Polls show a dead heat between the conservative incumbent’s handpicked successor and a leftist former guerrilla. The uncertainty is a nightmare for capital.
“Investors hate volatility,” a London-based analyst told me. “Colombia has been a relatively stable bet for a decade. That’s gone.” The stock of AngloCol, a joint venture between BP and Ecopetrol, has dropped 12 per cent in three months. Meanwhile, contracts for two major road projects backed by UK Export Finance are on hold. The Colombian peso has shed 8 per cent against the dollar since January.
The human cost is steeper. Internal displacement is at its highest since 2016, when the peace deal with the FARC was signed. More than 72,000 people fled their homes in the first quarter alone. The UN warns that armed groups are using forced recruitment, extortion and sexual violence to control territory. And the British government’s response? Quiet diplomacy. A few statements. No travel warnings to business travellers.
Why? Because Colombia is the UK’s third-largest trading partner in Latin America. Bilateral trade hit £4.6 billion last year. British companies employ tens of thousands of Colombians. The government is loath to spook the markets, but the markets are spooked anyway. The question now is whether the next government in Bogotá will honour contracts or tear them up.
A candidate linked to the former guerrilla group M-19 has promised to renegotiate energy deals. The conservative camp offers continuity, but its record on security is shaky. The army is stretched. The police are distrusted. The election is a referendum on the peace process itself, and the peace process is bleeding out.
In London, the desks are quiet. The analysts are revising their risk assessments. The clients are asking hard questions. The answer, for now, is that no one knows. But one thing is certain: if the next president cannot stop the killing, British money will find another home.