The Colombian presidential election, scheduled for next month, has been plunged into crisis as the country’s half-century internal conflict escalates with renewed ferocity. The convergence of guerrilla offensives, paramilitary reprisals, and a fractured peace process has created the most volatile electoral environment since the 2016 accord with the FARC.
President Iván Duque, whose administration has struggled to implement the peace deal, faces mounting criticism as violence surges in rural departments. The ELN, Colombia’s last active guerrilla army, has intensified attacks on security forces and oil infrastructure, while dissident FARC factions refuse to demobilise. Human rights groups report a 40% increase in forced displacements this year, with over 120,000 people abandoning their homes in the first quarter alone.
The election campaign has been marred by the assassination of at least 15 local candidates, predominantly from leftist and indigenous movements. The most recent killing, of a mayoral hopeful in Cauca department, prompted the United Nations to call for increased protection measures. Security analysts warn that the violence is strategically timed: armed groups seek to influence local power brokers and disrupt voting in areas where they operate.
The leading candidates offer starkly different visions for addressing the conflict. Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla and now progressive senator, advocates for comprehensive peace negotiations and land reform. His platform promises to revive stalled talks with the ELN and engage dissident groups through incentivised disarmament. His opponent, Federico Gutiérrez, a conservative former mayor of Medellín, champions a hardline security approach. He vows to expand military operations, reinstate aerial fumigation of coca crops, and reject any negotiations with armed groups unless they unilaterally cease hostilities.
The crisis has drawn international attention. The United States, Colombia’s primary ally, has signalled concern over Petro’s proposed recalibration of anti-narcotics policy. Washington has committed $400 million in security assistance this year, but conditions it on continued coca eradication. The European Union, meanwhile, has urged all parties to respect democratic processes and has offered electoral observation support.
Institutional integrity faces a critical test. The National Electoral Council has reported irregularities in voter registration in conflict zones, where large numbers of internally displaced persons may be unable to cast ballots. The Constitutional Court has ordered the government to establish special polling stations, but logistical challenges remain daunting. The armed forces, tasked with securing 12,000 precincts, acknowledge they cannot guarantee safety in 20% of rural areas.
The outcome of this election will shape Colombia’s trajectory for a generation. A Petro victory could herald a shift from militarised containment to negotiated settlement, but risks alienating conservative constituencies and international Backers. A Gutiérrez win would likely intensify the security state approach, potentially entrenching conflict cycles. As the campaign enters its final weeks, the country stands at a crossroads: either the ballot box will impose a temporary reprieve, or the violence may render the election itself a casualty of war.