Colombia goes to the polls today for a presidential runoff that could reshape the country's political and economic landscape. The choice is stark: Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla and leftist senator, promises sweeping social reforms. His opponent, Rodolfo Hernández, a conservative businessman and self-styled outsider, has been endorsed by Donald Trump. For British investors with hundreds of millions of pounds in Colombian oil, mining and infrastructure, the outcome is a nerve-shredding prospect. At stake is not just who governs in Bogotá, but the stability of a nation that has been a rare beacon of pro-market orthodoxy in Latin America.
Petro, who narrowly won the first round, is running on a platform of taxing the rich, expanding the state and halting new oil exploration. His proposals have spooked markets: the Colombian peso has fallen 10 per cent this year. But his supporters, many of them in the poverty-stricken regions of the Pacific and Caribbean coasts, say the neoliberal reforms of the past three decades have failed them. 'They tell us we are going back to the dark ages,' said María Fernanda, a street vendor in Cali's sprawling market. 'But for us, the dark ages are now. We cannot afford eggs any more.'
Hernández, by contrast, is a property mogul who made his fortune selling cheap housing. He has run a chaotic, TikTok-fuelled campaign, promising to cut bureaucracy, lower taxes and crack down on corruption. His appeal to Trump backers is no coincidence: he has called for a 'businessman's government' and praised the former US president's 'straight talk'. But his campaign has also been dogged by controversy: a video emerged of him calling women 'objects of desire' and he has faced questions over a contract awarded to his son's company.
For British investors, the calm before the storm is palpable. BP, Anglo American and Glencore all have major operations in Colombia. The UK exported £450 million of goods to Colombia in 2021, and the London Stock Exchange lists several Colombian companies. Simon Richards, a fund manager at a London-based emerging markets firm, said: 'If Petro wins, expect a sharp sell-off. If Hernández wins, there'll be relief but then a realisation that he has no party, no clear plan and a habit of shooting from the hip. Either way, volatility is the only certainty.'
Yet for all the market jitters, the campaign has also exposed a deep regional inequality that mirrors the divides in Britain. The north of Colombia, with its cities like Medellín and Bucaramanga, has boomed on the back of manufacturing and services. The south and the Pacific coast, meanwhile, remain mired in poverty, drug violence and state neglect. It is in those regions that hopes for change are highest, and where the next president must deliver if the country is to avoid further turmoil.
'I do not support either man,' said Father Álvaro, a priest in the impoverished Chocó department. 'But they must stop treating our communities like banana republics. We need schools, roads, a future for our children. If not, the young will keep fleeing to the cities or to the US border.'
Whoever wins, the challenges are daunting. Colombia faces a fiscal deficit of 6 per cent of GDP, unemployment of 12 per cent and inflation at a seven-year high. The new president will have to negotiate with a Congress split between left, right and an unpredictable centre. For now, voters are deciding not just on ideology, but on which version of hope they believe in: the redistributive promise of the left, or the entrepreneurial flame of the populist right.
As the polls open, the streets of Bogotá are quiet, save for the hum of campaign vans and the occasional blast of merengue. In the working-class neighbourhood of Usme, where the mountains meet the city's sprawl, people are queuing at makeshift polling stations under a grey sky. 'I have voted in seven elections,' said Luis, a retired bus driver. 'Each time, I think things will change. Maybe this time they really will.'
But whether that change comes with the red-and-white of Petro or the green-and-yellow of Hernández remains to be seen. For British investors watching from afar, it is a reminder that the price of bread, the strength of currencies and the stability of governments are never far apart: what happens in Colombia's poorest barrios will be felt in boardrooms in London.
