The West Wing may be watching. Bogotá certainly is. Colombia’s presidential election has narrowed to a stark choice: Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla turned leftist standard-bearer, versus Rodolfo Hernández, a populist businessman who channels Donald Trump. The runoff, set for June 19, is a seismic shift for a nation long defined by its conservative establishment.
Petro led the first round with 40% of the vote. Hernández shocked the system by edging out the establishment favourite, Federico Gutiérrez. The result sent tremors through Washington and London. Colombia, a staunch US ally and NATO partner, is moving left at a time when Latin America is tilting towards socialist governments.
But Hernández is no traditional right-winger. He is an anti-corruption crusader with a volatile style. He calls Petro a ‘legal terrorist’ and promises to jail him. Yet his policy platform is thin. He has compared himself to Trump, but with limited political infrastructure. His campaign is run from his phone. Literally.
What does this mean for the UK? British diplomats in Bogotá are fretting. Colombia is a key partner in trade, security and climate. Petro has promised to suspend oil exploration. That would hit the balance sheets of BP and others. Hernández has been vague on foreign policy, but his admiration for Trump suggests a transactional approach.
The Whitehall whisper is that No.10 is privately rooting for Hernández. But publicly, they remain neutral. The shadow of China looms large. Petro has signalled openness to Beijing. That would be a blow to Western influence in the region.
Neither candidate is a slam dunk for stability. Petro’s past as a guerrilla spooks the military and business elites. Hernández’s erratic style alarms diplomats. The runoff will be ugly. Polls show a dead heat.
One thing is certain: the old certainties are gone. Colombia’s political centre has collapsed. The UK must now navigate a new Bogotá. Whether it’s Petro or Hernández, the game has changed.
