Colombia’s electorate will head to the polls this Sunday in a presidential runoff that pits two starkly different visions for the nation’s future: a leftist former guerrilla and a pro-Trump populist. The outcome will not only reshape Colombia’s political landscape but also determine the fate of billions in British investment, particularly in the energy and mining sectors.
On one side stands Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 rebel and current senator, who has pledged to shift the country away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy. His platform includes halting new oil exploration and phasing out coal mining. These measures, if implemented, could jeopardise British companies like BP and Glencore, which have significant operations in Colombia. Petro’s environmental stance has earned him comparisons to leftist leaders in the region, but his critics warn of economic instability.
On the other side is Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate and former mayor of Bucaramanga, who has aligned himself with former US President Donald Trump. Hernández advocates for deregulation and tax cuts, including for foreign investors. He has vowed to expand oil and coal extraction, which could boost British energy interests but clash with global climate goals. His tenure as mayor was marked by controversy and legal disputes over environmental regulations.
British investment in Colombia spans oil and gas, mining, and infrastructure. The UK is the third-largest foreign investor in the country, with £3.5bn in assets. Any dramatic policy shift whether towards Petro’s green transition or Hernández’s laissez-faire approach will ripple through the London Stock Exchange and impact energy portfolios.
Climate scientists, including myself, view this election as a proxy for a broader global struggle. Colombia is one of the world’s most biodiverse nations, and its Amazon rainforest is a crucial carbon sink. Petro’s policies could align with international climate targets, but the economic cost of a rapid transition is uncertain. Hernández’s pro-business stance risks accelerating deforestation and emissions.
The data underscores the urgency. Colombia’s emissions from land-use change and forestry have risen 20% in the last decade. Meanwhile, the country’s oil reserves are estimated at 1.7 billion barrels, with a value of over $120bn at current prices. British energy firms hold a substantial share of these assets.
Calm urgency is required. Investors should prepare for volatility regardless of the result. The structural shifts in Colombia’s economy are part of a larger story of energy transition and geopolitical realignment. British policymakers must engage early with the incoming administration to protect strategic interests while advancing climate cooperation.
The world watches as Colombia makes a choice between a radical departure from its neoliberal past and a return to populist conservatism. The British government should facilitate dialogue between UK investors and both camps to ensure that the transition whatever direction is both orderly and equitable.
In the meantime, the atmospheric carbon clock ticks on. Colombia’s decision will echo beyond its borders, influencing how other resource-rich nations navigate the intersection of democracy, development, and climate survival.
