Colombia’s presidential election, which advanced to a second round on May 29, has set the stage for a potential realignment of Western hemispheric alliances. The two remaining candidates, leftist Gustavo Petro and populist Rodolfo Hernández, have both signalled a departure from the pro-American stance of the outgoing Iván Duque administration. This has prompted British officials to recalibrate their diplomatic posture towards the region.
Petro, a former guerrilla and senator, has pledged to suspend cooperation with the United States on counter-narcotics and to renegotiate trade terms. Hernández, a millionaire businessman, campaigned on an anti-corruption ticket but has also expressed scepticism about foreign intervention. Neither candidate has embraced the Western liberal order that has dominated Colombian foreign policy for decades.
The United Kingdom, which has expanded its trade and investment footprint in Colombia since Brexit, is now assessing the potential fallout. British exports to Colombia reached £450 million in 2021, and UK companies hold significant stakes in the country’s oil, mining, and infrastructure sectors. A shift in Bogotá’s foreign policy could jeopardise these interests.
“Colombia has been a linchpin of Western strategy in Latin America,” said Dr. Amelia Forde, a fellow at Chatham House. “A leftist government would be a major blow to the alliance system, not least because it would align with Venezuela and strengthen Russian influence.”
The Foreign Office has declined to comment on the record, but diplomatic sources indicate that contingency planning is underway. One option under consideration is deepening the UK’s bilateral ties with other Andean nations, such as Peru and Chile, to offset any losses in Colombia.
The election also comes at a sensitive time for the UK’s global strategy. With the war in Ukraine straining relations with Russia, and China’s influence in Latin America growing, London can ill afford another defection from the Western camp. Colombia is the third-largest recipient of UK aid in the region after Syria and Yemen, a fact that may amplify UK leverage in the coming weeks.
“The UK must use its soft power wisely,” said Sir Michael Langdon, a former ambassador to Colombia. “Offering a clear, positive vision of partnership rather than hectoring will be key. Colombians are tired of empty rhetoric from both Washington and Caracas.”
The second round is scheduled for June 19. Polls suggest a tight race, with Petro holding a slim lead. Hernández has struck a more moderate tone in recent days, but his campaign has been marred by gaffes and policy vagueness. Political analysts warn that whatever the outcome, the era of unquestioned Colombian alignment with the West is over.
For London, the challenge is to adapt to this new reality without abandoning the strategic foothold hard-won over two decades. The next few weeks will be critical in shaping the UK’s Latin American policy for years to come.
