Colombians go to the polls today in a presidential election that could realign the country’s foreign policy and reshape its strategic partnerships. The frontrunner, leftist candidate Gustavo Petro, has pledged to renegotiate trade terms with the United States, suspend aerial fumigation of coca crops, and pursue a more independent foreign policy. His opponent, conservative Rodolfo Hernández, advocates for business-friendly policies but has also signalled a desire to distance Bogotá from Washington’s influence.
The outcome poses a dilemma for the United States, Colombia’s largest trading partner and a key security ally in the region. A Petro victory would mark the first time a leftist government has led Colombia since the 1990s, potentially fracturing decades of close cooperation on counter-narcotics and regional security. Washington has already expressed concern over Petro’s proposal to renegotiate the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, which came into effect in 2012.
Against this backdrop, British officials have quietly positioned the United Kingdom as an alternative partner. Trade between the UK and Colombia has grown steadily since the Brexit vote, with bilateral trade reaching £2.3 billion in 2021. The UK has also expanded its development assistance and has deepened diplomatic ties, hosting Colombia’s foreign minister in London last month. A senior British diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told this correspondent that “Colombia is looking for diversified partnerships. We are well placed to offer investment and expertise in infrastructure, renewable energy, and financial services.”
The election is being closely watched in Whitehall. The UK is currently negotiating a post-Brexit free trade agreement with Colombia, alongside Ecuador and Peru, under the Pacific Alliance framework. British leverage could grow significantly if Bogotá becomes less reliant on Washington. However, analysts caution that any pivot to London would be gradual, given Colombia’s historic ties with the US and its dependence on American military aid.
Should Petro prevail, his administration is likely to seek closer economic links with China and Russia. China has already become Colombia’s second-largest trading partner, and Russia has increased arms sales. This would put the UK in a competitive position to offer a Western alternative that does not come with the political strings attached by the US. The British government has already signalled its readiness to expand bilateral investment in sectors such as mining, energy, and telecommunications.
The election also carries implications for the fight against drug trafficking. Petro has vowed to end aerial spraying of glyphosate, a policy the US has long championed. Hernández supports a tougher stance, but both candidates have signalled a desire to refocus anti-drug efforts on voluntary eradication and rural development. British officials have expressed cautious support for this approach, aligning with the UK’s emphasis on sustainable development in Latin America.
Polls open at 8 am local time and close at 4 pm, with preliminary results expected by early evening. Turnout is forecast at around 50 per cent. The next president will be inaugurated on 7 August, inheriting a country grappling with inflation, unemployment, and rising violence. For the UK, the result will determine whether its quiet diplomacy can translate into tangible economic and strategic gains.
