Colombia goes to the polls this Sunday for a presidential run-off that pits a leftist former guerrilla against a populist businessman who has modelled himself on Donald Trump. For British consumers already feeling the pinch at the till, the outcome could ripple through supply chains and energy bills. Gustavo Petro, a former member of the M-19 rebel group, promises to lift the poor by taxing the rich and halting new oil exploration.
His rival, Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate known for his acerbic tirades against the 'political caste', wants to slash taxes and tighten ties with the United States. Petro leads in the polls, but the race is tight. A win for Petro would align Colombia with the leftward shift seen in Chile, Peru and Brazil, unsettling markets that see the country as a stable ally and key exporter of coffee, oil and coal.
'If Petro freezes exploration, that means less oil on global markets, and higher prices at the pump here,' says Dr Eleanor Paisley, a Latin America analyst at Chatham House. 'Your petrol bill could go up. But there is a more direct link: Colombia's coffee crop.
If Petro imposes price controls or land reforms, the cost of your morning brew could spike.' Hernández, by contrast, promises to slash red tape and boost foreign investment. But his volatile style – he once slapped a local official and has compared the peace process with leftist guerrillas to 'changing a nappy' – worries diplomats who value stability.
'Hernández is a wildcard,' says James Kirkup, a risk consultant. 'He could be great for business or cause chaos. The UK has strong trade ties with Colombia, worth over £1bn annually.
Whoever wins will shape our access to vital minerals like nickel and copper, used in electric cars and wind turbines.' The election also carries broader geopolitical weight. Petro has called for a 'new deal' with Washington, demanding an end to the US-led war on drugs and more freedom to trade with China.
Hernández favours a tougher line on Venezuela and closer alignment with US foreign policy. 'Britain must watch carefully,' says Paisley. 'If Petro pursues a foreign policy independent of the US, that could affect our own diplomatic strategy in the region, especially on climate and trade.
' For voters in Rotherham or Rochdale, the name 'Gustavo Petro' might mean little. But as one Colombian coffee farmer told me: 'We grow the beans that wake up Britain. They should care who rules us.
