The Democratic Republic of Congo is staring into the abyss. A catastrophic collision of war and Ebola. The world’s second-largest Ebola outbreak, burning bright in North Kivu. Now, a fresh rebel offensive. M23 fighters, backed by Rwanda, are closing in on Goma. The city is a humanitarian hub. Aid workers are pulling out. The sick are being abandoned.
Whitehall is panicking. Quietly. The UK has pumped millions into the Ebola response. Over 100 million pounds since 2018. But the cash is landing in a war zone. Armed groups control the roads. Health workers are being kidnapped. The UK’s Department for International Development, now folded into the FCDO, is struggling to track the money.
One Whitehall insider told me: “We’re funding hospitals that could be overrun by rebels tomorrow. The risk is enormous. But if we pull out, the outbreak spirals. It’s a lose-lose.”
The numbers are brutal. Over 2,000 cases so far. A 67% fatality rate. The real figure is probably higher. Under-reporting is rife. The virus is spreading in camps for displaced people. Cramped, filthy, desperate. Perfect conditions for an epidemic.
And then there’s the politics. Rwanda’s president, Paul Kagame, is playing a double game. Publicly, he backs the peace process. Privately, his proxies are seizing territory. The UK gives Rwanda millions in aid. The Treasury despises this. The Foreign Office sees Rwanda as a stabilising force. The split is vicious.
A former minister told me: “We’re funding a regime that is actively destabilising the region. It’s madness. But the alternative is worse. A failed state on our watch.”
Meanwhile, the WHO is warning of a “perfect storm”. The agency’s chief, Tedros, is begging for a ceasefire. He won’t get one. The rebels see this as a power vacuum. The government is weak. President Tshisekedi is distracted by his own political battles. He fired his prime minister last week. No one is in charge.
So, what does Boris Johnson do? He’s in a bind. The aid budget is being slashed. From 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%. Tory backbenchers are furious. They see this as a betrayal of British values. But the Treasury is adamant. The deficit must be cut. The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, is caught in the middle. He wants to maintain Britain’s global role. The chancellor won’t give him the cash.
The Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, has offered military support. Chinooks. Troops. But the military is stretched. Afghanistan, Mali, the Gulf. And no one wants another entanglement. The memory of Iraq and Afghanistan is still fresh.
I spoke to a senior WHO official. Off the record. He said: “If this gets out of control, it will spread to Uganda. Then Rwanda. Then the whole region. We are one plane journey away from a global health emergency.”
The UK is not prepared. The FCDO’s crisis response team is understaffed. They have no dedicated health unit. The Ebola experience from 2014 has faded. The institutional memory is gone.
And the clock is ticking. The rebels are advancing. The outbreak is accelerating. Soon, there will be no safe place for aid workers. No health centres. No hope.
One thing is clear: this is a defining moment for British aid. If we fail here. If we let this outbreak burn unchecked. The world will never trust us again. And rightly so.
