The sun is setting on the British convertible. For decades, the open-top car was a symbol of British engineering and leisure, from the MG B to the Bentley Continental. But a confluence of market forces and regulatory pressure is now driving luxury manufacturers to close the chapter on their convertible models. The bottom line? The numbers no longer add up.
The convertible market has been shrinking for years. In 2019, convertibles accounted for less than 2% of new car sales in Europe, down from 3.5% a decade earlier. The pandemic accelerated the decline, as consumers shifted to SUVs and crossovers. But the real killer is the transition to electric vehicles.
Bentley, Rolls-Royce, and Aston Martin are all pivoting to electric powertrains. Battery packs are heavy and bulky, making it difficult to engineer a convertible without compromising performance or range. The structural rigidity required for a convertible body also adds weight, further reducing efficiency. For luxury brands, the cost of developing a bespoke electric convertible platform is prohibitive, especially when demand is waning.
Consider Bentley. The company announced in 2020 that it would go all-electric by 2030. Its first electric model, due in 2025, will be a coupe, not a convertible. The Continental GT Convertible and the Flying Spur are likely to be phased out. Rolls-Royce has already confirmed that its first electric car, the Spectre, is a coupe, with no convertible version planned. Aston Martin, meanwhile, is hedging its bets. The DBX SUV sells well, but the company has yet to commit to an electric convertible.
This is not just a question of engineering. It is a matter of capital allocation. The rate of return on investment in a niche model like a convertible is lower than for a high-volume SUV. With margins under pressure from supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs, luxury brands are focusing on their most profitable models. The convertible, once a halo car, is now a liability.
The decline of the convertible is also a story of changing consumer tastes. The millennial generation, now entering its peak spending years, prefers SUVs and crossovers. Convertibles are seen as impractical and indulgent. The rise of ride-hailing and car-sharing means that younger consumers value utility over image. In China, the world's largest luxury car market, convertibles are often associated with a lack of prestige; owners prefer the privacy and comfort of a saloon or SUV.
The government is not helping either. Stricter emissions regulations are pushing manufacturers to electrify their fleets. The UK's ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 is a key factor. Convertibles, with their poorer aerodynamics, typically have higher CO2 emissions than equivalent coupes. This makes it harder for manufacturers to meet fleet average targets without incurring fines.
There is a silver lining for the die-hard enthusiast. A few manufacturers are still investing in electric convertibles. MG, now Chinese-owned, has launched the MG Cyberster, an electric roadster. But this is a niche product, not a mainstream offering. For British luxury brands, the convertible is a relic of a bygone era. The market has spoken, and the numbers are clear: capital is flowing to electric SUVs, not drop-tops.
Investors should take note. The companies that pivot fastest to electric SUVs and crossovers will outperform those that cling to legacy models. The convertible is a dead asset class. Redeploy your capital accordingly.
As the City would say, it's time to short the sunroof and go long on the battery pack. The convertible market is in decline, and there is no turning back.
