The narrative of national incompetence takes a hit today. As thermometers in Paris and Madrid burst past 42 degrees, triggering red alerts and scenes of urban panic, the UK has been quietly praised for its handling of a heatwave that would have, just a few years ago, triggered a full-blown crisis.
Whitehall sources are cautiously smug. The much-maligned UK Health Security Agency, the Met Office's new extreme heat warning system, and a coordinated cross-departmental response have, for once, worked. No deaths directly linked to the heat have been reported. The transport network, famously fragile at the first sign of snow, has largely held. The NHS has seen a surge in calls, but not a collapse.
This is a far cry from the summer of 2022, when the UK recorded its first ever red heat warning and saw hundreds of excess deaths. Then, the government's critics said the country was unprepared, wedded to a culture of 'keep calm and carry on' that was ill-suited to a warming world. Today, the same critics are eating their words.
But here's the thing: this isn't a triumph of government competence. It's a triumph of fear. The memory of 2022 is still fresh. Local authorities, the NHS, and transport operators were terrified of a repeat. They acted early, opening cooling centres, sending text alerts, and asking people to work from home. The public, scarred by images of melting runways and buckling railways, actually listened.
Compare that to Paris, where the air conditioning in the metro failed and the city's famed outdoor cafés became impossible. Or Madrid, where emergency services struggled to cope as hospitals filled with heatstroke victims. The difference isn't that the UK is better. It's that we were spooked into competence.
For No. 10, this is a rare positive story. Sunak's team has been quick to claim credit. But the real credit belongs to the civil servants and local leaders who, seeing the failed response in 2022, quietly prepared. The question now is whether this success will embed a new culture of resilience, or whether, as the heatwave passes, the lessons will be forgotten.
The polling effect is worth watching. For months, the government has been hammered on the cost of living, NHS waiting lists, and small boats. A well-handled crisis, even a short one, might give Sunak a brief bounce. But the politics of weather is fickle. If the temperature drops and the rain returns, so will the normal grumbling.
Whips will be watching the backbenches, too. Some Tory MPs, convinced that climate policy is a vote loser, have been lobbying for a green rollback. A successful heatwave response undercuts their argument that adaptation is an expensive irrelevance. Expect a few behind-closed-doors arguments about net zero in the coming days.
But let's be honest: this is a stay of execution, not a pardon. The government's bigger problems remain. A heatwave well-handled doesn't cure the housing shortage or stop the boats. It doesn't make the NHS waiting lists shrink or the economy grow. It just means that for one week in July, the Daily Mail splash isn't about a government failing.
For now, though, Whitehall can enjoy a rare moment of quiet satisfaction. The machine worked. The machine that is so often mocked as sclerotic and unprepared actually, just this once, delivered. The question is whether it can do it again when the next crisis, whatever it is, comes calling.
I'd bet on the usual chaos. But for today, let's just acknowledge: they got this one right.
