Downing Street has ordered the Royal Navy to deploy escorts for commercial shipping in the Black Sea. The trigger? Ukrainian strikes on cargo vessels. This is a significant escalation. Three merchant ships hit this week. Two were Russian-flagged. One was a Greek-operated bulk carrier. The Greek vessel is the real problem. It changes the calculus.
Sources inside the Ministry of Defence tell me the decision came late last night. The Chief of the Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, signed off on it after a frantic 90-minute COBRA meeting. The PM was not present. He was on a call with President Zelensky. The mood in the room was described as 'grimly determined.'
This is not about joining the war. This is about protecting trade routes. The Black Sea grain corridor is vital. Billions in exports. Food prices globally are at stake. Russia has blockaded ports. Ukraine is now hitting ships it deems as 'running the blockade.' But the criteria are unclear. The Greeks are furious. Their foreign minister called the UK Foreign Secretary three times in one hour.
The naval deployment is modest. Two Type 45 destroyers, HMS Dragon and HMS Defender. They will provide a protective bubble. Their rules of engagement are strict. They can only fire if a merchant vessel under their protection is directly threatened. This is a dangerous game. The ships will be operating near the Crimean coast. Russian aircraft patrol there. The risk of an accidental engagement is high.
Opposition MPs are already demanding a Commons statement. The Defence Secretary is expected to make one this afternoon. Labour's shadow defence secretary, John Healey, has called for 'absolute clarity' on the mission's scope. He is right to be cautious. The government is walking a tightrope. Protecting shipping without getting dragged into a direct confrontation with Moscow.
The real story here is the breakdown of the old rules. Ukraine is no longer just defending. It is striking at Russian infrastructure and now commercial assets. Russia is mining the sea lanes. Both sides are behaving unpredictably. This is a textbook 'grey zone' conflict. The Royal Navy is being asked to operate in a space where the lines are blurred. That is a recipe for something to go wrong.
Behind the scenes, the Foreign Office is in a panic. They fear this could spiral. A single misfired missile. A miscommunication. A Russian jet buzzing a destroyer. The margins are razor thin. The PM's political opponents are circling. They will hold him responsible if this escalates.
One senior naval source put it bluntly: 'We are not at war. But we are pretending we are not in one.' That is the truth. The government hopes the mere presence of British warships will deter Ukrainian attacks. But deterrence is a fragile thing. And the fog of war is thick over the Black Sea.
