The Caribbean island nation of Cuba is facing its most severe energy crisis in decades, with rolling blackouts now exceeding 12 hours per day in several provinces. The situation, exacerbated by aging infrastructure and fuel shortages, has been further strained by recent US sanctions tightening, which restrict international fuel shipments. As Havana scrambles to stabilise its grid, UK energy firms are exploring trade ties with the island, a move that could test diplomatic boundaries.
Cuba's power generation capacity has fallen by nearly 30% since 2020, according to data from the International Energy Agency. The country relies on imported oil and diesel for over 90% of its electricity, but US sanctions have discouraged many suppliers. The Trump-era Helms-Burton Act, while not fully enforced, creates legal risks for foreign companies trading with Cuba. Yet UK energy companies, eyeing potential revenue and geopolitical advantage, are proposing liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments and solar microgrid installations.
The physics of the situation is stark: without a stable energy supply, Cuba's economy contracts, public health suffers, and migration pressures increase. The average temperature in Havana has risen 1.2°C since 1950, increasing air conditioning demand by 15% per degree. This feedback loop compounds the blackout problem. According to the Cuban Ministry of Energy, the grid loses an estimated 40% of generated power due to aged transformers and transmission lines, a rate three times the global average.
UK foreign policy toward Cuba has long been cautious, balancing trade opportunities with US alliance priorities. However, the energy crisis offers a unique entry point. UK-based companies like Solarcentury have already installed 50 MW of solar in Cuba, enough to power 30,000 homes, but only during daylight. Battery storage, critical for night-time supply, remains scarce. A proposed UK-Cuba energy partnership could include 200 MW of new solar plus 100 MW of battery storage, equivalent to roughly 8% of current peak demand.
This is not merely a diplomatic calculation. The biosphere is unforgiving. Every tonne of carbon emitted from Cuban oil plants adds to the global burden. If the UK helps Cuba leapfrog to renewables, it provides a model for other island nations facing similar climate-induced energy strain. But the path is narrow. US legislation prohibits ships that have docked in Cuba from entering US ports for 180 days, effectively penalising any UK tanker that delivers fuel to Havana.
The blackouts have real costs. The Cuban hospital system relies on backup diesel generators, but fuel for these is now rationed. Without reliable power, vaccine cold chains for preventable diseases like diphtheria are compromised. The country’s biotech sector, once a source of pride, struggles to maintain lab experiments. Economic output has fallen 8% in the last year alone, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America.
What happens next? The UK government’s Department for Business and Trade has not commented on the reports, but energy analysts suggest a phased approach. First, humanitarian fuel shipments to stabilise hospitals. Second, financing for solar and battery systems through export credits. Third, diplomatic talks with Washington to carve out a narrow exception for renewable energy equipment.
The irony is not lost: a nation rich in solar resource, bathed in an average 5.5 kWh per square metre per day of sunlight, remains in darkness. The solution is not complex; it is political. As Dr. Ramon Bouza, a Cuban energy engineer, put it: “We have the sun. We need the storage and the will.” The UK could provide both, but at a cost that extends beyond currency. It requires confronting the structure of sanctions and the weight of geopolitical gravity.
For now, Cubans light candles and wait. The grid operator’s daily blackout schedule, printed on paper, is a relic of a system that is, quite literally, in the dark ages. The question is whether UK trade ties can brighten the island’s future without dimming its broader relationship with the United States.
