The slow-motion collapse of Cuba’s electrical grid has reached a critical juncture. As of this week, large swathes of the island have been without power for over 72 hours, with the government resorting to rolling blackouts that now extend 12 to 18 hours per day. The root cause is a perfect storm of ageing infrastructure, fuel shortages, and economic sanctions. Cuba’s power plants, many built in the 1980s, rely on imported crude oil from Venezuela and Mexico, supplies of which have dwindled. The result is a nation plunged into darkness, with hospitals running on backup generators and water pumps falling silent.
This is not merely a tale of one nation’s struggle. It is a cautionary case study in energy fragility, and it stands in stark contrast to the resilience being built in the United Kingdom. While Cuba’s grid falters, the UK is quietly fortifying its own through a combination of renewable expansion, grid modernisation, and strategic gas storage. The juxtaposition is instructive.
Cuba’s challenges are multifaceted. The country generates a mere 0.8 gigawatts of electricity at peak, down from a demand of 1.2 gigawatts. The gap is filled by blackouts. The thermal power plants, with an average age of 35 years, suffer chronic breakdowns. Maintenance is hampered by US sanctions, which restrict access to spare parts and financing. The government has attempted to install solar panels and wind turbines, but the pace is glacial. As of 2023, renewables account for less than 5% of Cuba’s mix. The grid itself is a patchwork, lacking the smart meters and redundancy that buffer against outages.
In contrast, the UK’s grid is undergoing a quiet revolution. In 2023, renewables supplied over 40% of UK electricity. Wind alone accounted for 28%, with offshore capacity set to double by 2030. The grid is being fortified with battery storage, now over 2 gigawatts, absorbing surplus generation and releasing it during peak demand. Gas power plants, while still a fossil fuel backup, are being retrofitted to be hydrogen-ready. The UK’s energy resilience is further underpinned by interconnectors to France, Belgium, and Norway, allowing imports when domestic generation falls short. These cables are the UK’s safety net, a luxury Cuba lacks.
But the contrast goes beyond technology. It is about governance and investment. The UK’s energy market, though imperfect, incentivises private investment in capacity. Cuba’s state-run system lacks the capital and expertise to modernise. The result is a divergence that will only widen. As global temperatures rise, the demand for cooling will increase, putting further strain on fragile grids. The UK has recognised this: the Climate Change Committee projects that for a 2°C world, peak electricity demand could increase by 20%, requiring a grid with twice the capacity. The UK is building that now. Cuba is merely surviving.
This is not a story of blame but of physics. Power grids are physical systems with inertia, stability margins, and failure modes. Cuba’s grid has been operating at the edge of stability for years. Every mismatch between supply and demand causes frequency dips that trigger load shedding. The system is oscillating toward collapse. The UK, meanwhile, is investing in synchronous condensers and grid-forming inverters to mimic the inertia of fossil fuel plants, ensuring frequency stays within 0.5% of 50 hertz.
The lesson for the world is clear. Energy transitions are not luxuries; they are lifelines. Every nation must view grid resilience as a matter of national security. The UK’s path is not without pitfalls: gas prices remain volatile, and network upgrades are costly. But the direction is correct. Cuba’s plight is a glimpse of the future if we fail to act. The biosphere does not care about political ideologies. It cares about infrastructure. And right now, the numbers are unforgiving.
For the UK, the crisis in Cuba should be a wake-up call, not a source of smugness. The climate system does not discriminate. What happened to Cuba can happen anywhere. The only difference is preparation. The UK is preparing. But as any physicist knows, preparation must be continuous. The grid is a living system, and it demands constant attention. If we look away, even for a moment, the lights may go out for good.
