Havana is running on fumes. As rolling blackouts plunge millions of Cubans into darkness for up to 12 hours a day, the island’s creaking power grid has become the latest casualty of geopolitical friction. The outages, which began intensifying in late February, stem from a confluence of ageing infrastructure, fuel shortages and the tightening of US sanctions. But for a handful of British energy companies, the crisis presents an improbable opportunity: a chance to leapfrog Cuba’s fossil fuel past and install a modern, renewable grid.
The immediate cause of the blackouts is mechanical failure at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant, Cuba’s largest, which has been offline since late February. This plant alone supplies roughly 20 per cent of the nation’s electricity. With sporadic repairs and a lack of imported fuel, the country’s generation capacity has fallen below 50 per cent of peak demand. The state utility, Union Eléctrica, has been forced to implement rotating cuts across all 15 provinces.
But the deeper problem is systemic. Cuba’s power sector relies on eight oil-fired plants, many commissioned in the 1980s and never modernised. The US embargo, codified in the Helms-Burton Act, blocks Cuban access to American equipment, financing and spare parts. Even purchases via third parties are fraught with legal risk. As a result, efficiency has plummeted. The grid loses more than 35 per cent of generated power to transmission and distribution leaks, according to official data.
“This is a slow motion collapse of a critical system,” said Dr. Helena Vance, my colleague and a climate risk analyst. “Cuba cannot maintain a 20th century power model under 21st century sanctions. The only way out is to decentralise production using solar, wind and storage.”
That is where British firms see a wedge. Since 2022, several UK-based developers have secured preliminary agreements with the Cuban government to build solar farms and battery storage facilities. One project, backed by a London-based renewable investment group, aims to install 500 megawatts of photovoltaics across the island by 2027. Another, a joint venture with a Scottish turbine manufacturer, wants to establish wind clusters along the north coast.
The obstacles are formidable. Financing is scarce. Cuba is effectively locked out of dollar-denominated capital markets, and its sovereign debt is trading at distressed levels. British firms must work with European banks willing to navigate sanctions loopholes, or rely on export credit agencies in countries with less restrictive policies.
Yet the business case is clear. Cuba has abundant solar irradiation and steady trade winds. The average household pays a heavily subsidised tariff of less than 10 US cents per kilowatt-hour, but the government cannot afford to import the oil needed to keep plants running. The cost of solar plus storage has fallen below the cost of operating existing oil plants, even before accounting for fuel subsidies.
“This is a textbook example of the energy transition being driven by bare economics, not ideology,” said Dr. Vance. “If Cuba can leapfrog to a renewable grid, it would be a powerful demonstration that decarbonisation and energy independence are the same thing.”
For now, the blackouts continue. Cubans line up for bread by candlelight. Hospitals run on diesel generators that cough and sputter. The government is appealing to Russia and Venezuela for emergency fuel shipments. But long term, the only sustainable path is a technological transformation. British firms, with their deep experience in offshore wind and grid-scale storage, are positioning themselves to lead it.
The irony is that the very sanctions that cause the crisis also create a protected market. With US companies barred from participating, European and British entities face less competition. If they can overcome the capital constraints, they could lock in decades of revenue and build a model for other embargoed nations.
“Cuba is a pressure cooker,” Dr. Vance concluded. “But pressure concentrates effort. If they can build a network of localised microgrids powered by the sun and the wind, they will have done what the rest of the world is still struggling to do. And British companies could help them get there.”
