The Caribbean is witnessing a collision of energy fragility and geopolitical recalibration. Cuba, already grappling with a crippling energy deficit, now hosts CIA Director William Burns in Havana. For a nation whose power grid has been described by engineers as 'held together by hope and Soviet-era wiring,' this visit signals more than routine diplomacy. It marks a quiet but significant shift in regional dynamics, one that the UK is monitoring with customary reserve but acute attention.
Cuba's energy crisis is not a sudden development. The collapse of the Soviet Union left the island dependent on ageing thermal plants and sporadic shipments of Venezuelan crude. In 2024, power outages have become a daily reality. The grid, designed for a consumption level that no longer exists due to economic decline, buckles under demand. Rolling blackouts lasting 12 to 16 hours are now normal. This is not infrastructure failure. It is systemic collapse.
Enter the CIA. Burns' visit, the highest level US intelligence trip in decades, is officially about 'security cooperation.' But the subtext is clear. The United States sees an opening. Cuba's dependence on foreign oil has made it vulnerable. Its current lifeline, Venezuelan and Russian support, is frayed. The US, bound by decades of embargo policy, cannot offer direct aid. But it can assess the landscape.
The UK's interest is less about Cuba itself and more about the ripples. The Caribbean is a patchwork of energy-poor island states, many of which look to Cuba as a bellwether. If Cuba can stabilise its grid, it becomes a model. If it fails, the consequences for migration, regional stability, and even drug trafficking routes will intensify. The British Overseas Territories in the region, including the Cayman Islands and Turks and Caicos, are not immune.
What does the physics say? Energy transitions are not optional. The fossil fuel era is ending whether we plan for it or not. Cuba has vast solar potential, with over 300 sunny days a year. But solar panels require capital and maintenance, and the US embargo blocks access to international finance. This is a machine caught between its past and its possibilities. The grid cannot be extended further without a new source of power, something that is neither Russian oil nor Venezuelan subsidies.
The CIA visit is a reconnaissance of collapse. It is also a signal that the US is rethinking its approach. For decades, the policy was isolation. Now, with China and Russia making inroads, the calculus has changed. A failed state 90 miles from Florida is not in anyone's interest.
The Calm Urgency here is this. Cuba's energy crisis is a microcosm of a global pattern. The biosphere does not negotiate. Systems break when stressed beyond tolerance. The Caribbean, with its complex history of empire and exploitation, is now a laboratory for the future. The UK, with its own energy transition underway, watches not as a passive observer but as a stakeholder. The grid in Havana is a bellwether. When it flickers, the world takes note.
For now, the crisis deepens. The queues for petrol grow longer. The generators hum louder. And the diplomats confer in quiet rooms. The story is not yet written. But the data points are clear. Energy is the lens through which the next chapter of Caribbean geopolitics will be read.
