The White House has thrown a diplomatic grenade into the Havana-Washington relationship. Raúl Castro, the former Cuban president, has been charged with murder by a US federal court. The charge stems from the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft operated by the group Brothers to the Rescue. Four people died. The indictment, unsealed on Monday, accuses Castro of ordering the attack. It is a direct escalation. A message. This is not just about justice for the families, though that is the public line. This is about pressure. Raw, unrelenting pressure on the Cuban regime.
Sources inside the State Department are unusually tight-lipped. But word from the Hill is that this move was coordinated with hardline Florida Republicans. Senator Marco Rubio has been pushing for this for years. The administration is clearly playing to the Cuban-American vote in a crucial swing state. But this is a high-risk play. It threatens to destabilise any remaining diplomatic channels. The Cuban embassy in Washington will be on high alert. Expect a furious response from Havana.
The details of the case are grim. On February 24, 1996, Cuban MiG-29s shot down two Cessna 337s over international waters. The planes were operated by Brothers to the Rescue, a group that drops leaflets over Cuba. The US has long condemned the attack. But charging a former head of state is extraordinary. It is a nuclear option in diplomatic terms. The legal basis is the 1994 US statute that allows prosecution of foreign officials for terrorist acts. But the politics are what matter. This is a shot across the bow.
What does Raúl Castro think? He is 93. Frail. But still a figurehead. His brother Fidel was never charged, though many wanted it. This charge is symbolic. It is about sending a message to the current regime. President Miguel Díaz-Canel will see this as an act of aggression. The timing is curious. Just as Cuba is opening up to tourism and private enterprise. Western companies are eyeing the market. This could scare them off. Investors hate volatility.
The White House insists this is a matter of law, not politics. But nobody in the Lobby believes that. This is a clear attempt to force a change in Havana. The administration knows that Raúl Castro will never stand trial. Extradition is a fantasy. The charge is about branding him a murderer. It is about isolating Cuba further.
Backbench Labour MPs in London are watching with interest. Some see parallels to the UK's own tensions with Russia over the Litvinenko case. Others worry about the precedent. Charging a foreign leader decades later. It smacks of political theatre. But the US has the power to do it. And it is using it.
The Cuban American community is jubilant. For them, this is long-overdue justice. But in Havana, the regime is rallying. Expect a wave of anti-US propaganda. The charge will be used to paint the US as a bully. The real question is: what next? More sanctions? More charges? The White House has not said. But insiders hint this is just the start. The pressure campaign is accelerating.
This story has legs. It will dominate the news cycle. It will strain relations. And it will remind the world that the US-Cuba relationship is still defined by Cold War animosity. No thaw. Only fire.
