The numbers are stark. Cuban tourism has fallen off a cliff. Arrivals down 40% year-on-year. The US embargo, tightened under Trump and sustained by Biden, is finally biting hard. But the real story is not just about empty hotels in Varadero. It is about who fills the vacuum. And that, whisper it in Whitehall, is us.
Senior diplomatic sources tell me that the British government has been quietly watching this collapse with more than academic interest. The Caribbean is a traditional sphere of influence. The UK retains sovereign bases, overseas territories, and a web of trade links. For years, Cuba was a Cold War relic, a strain on relations with Washington. Now, with Havana desperate for friends, London sees an opening.
The mechanics are simple. American tourists are barred. European visitors, especially Britons, are now the prime market. Direct flights from London to Havana have increased. The British embassy in Havana has seen a quiet uptick in commercial attachés. Trade missions, once a footnote, are now being fast-tracked.
But the real prize is geopolitical. Cuba’s collapse weakens the anti-US bloc in the region. Venezuela is already in freefall. Nicaragua is isolated. The UK, as a stable, non-US Western power, becomes the go-to intermediary. Whitehall strategists are already framing this as a 'reset' of Caribbean relations, one that does not antagonise Washington but quietly builds British influence.
Labour has been briefed. Shadow ministers are said to be supportive, seeing no political downside. The big risk is that the US might see this as undercutting the embargo. But the calculation is that Washington has bigger fish to fry. And a stable Caribbean, with British help, is better than a chaotic one.
Of course, it is not all smooth sailing. The Cuban bureaucracy is sclerotic. Corruption remains rife. The infrastructure is crumbling. But for a British government looking for foreign policy wins after Brexit, this is low-hanging fruit.
The bottom line: Cuba’s loss is Britain’s gain. The Caribbean chessboard is shifting. And the UK, for once, is making a move.
