Copenhagen, Denmark – In a move that has Whitehall strategists scrambling for their briefing books, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has finally cobbled together a coalition government after weeks of backroom horse-trading. Sources close to the negotiations confirm that the new administration will lean heavily on Nordic solidarity, a signal that has London’s defence mandarins licking their lips.
Frederiksen’s Social Democrats have inked a deal with the centre-right Venstre and the moderate Moderates, a patchwork alliance that promises to hike defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2028. That’s a full percentage point above NATO’s current baseline, and it comes with a Nordic twist: a joint procurement pact with Sweden and Norway to standardise artillery and air defence systems. The unspoken target? Squeezing Moscow’s ambitions in the Baltic.
But the real prize for Number 10 is a quid pro quo on intelligence sharing and Arctic monitoring. Leaked Foreign Office memos, obtained by this newsroom, reveal that British negotiators have been quietly sounding out Danish officials about co-financing a new radar station on the Faroe Islands. The station would plug a glaring gap in NATO’s northern coverage, monitoring Russian submarine traffic in the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap. One source put it bluntly: “The Danes have the geography. We have the cash. It’s a transaction.”
Not everyone is thrilled. Opposition MPs in Copenhagen are crying foul over the defence splurge, pointing to cuts in social housing and childcare in the coalition’s budget blueprint. “Frederiksen is selling out the welfare state for a few pats on the back from NATO,” one centre-left critic told me, speaking on condition of anonymity. “And the Brits are just using us as a buffer against their own defence screw-ups.”
The timing is no accident. With the Danish parliament due to debate a new security strategy next month, and the UK’s integrated review scheduled for a refresh in the autumn, both governments see a window to lock in commitments before the political winds shift. But documents show that the Danish military is already overstretched, with equipment shortages and morale problems that won’t be fixed by a ministerial signature.
For now, Frederiksen is playing the statesman. At a press conference this morning, she declared that “Denmark will no longer be a free rider on defence.” But the fine print reveals that the 2.5 per cent target includes pensions and veterans’ benefits, inflating the real spending figure. And the Nordic procurement deal? It’s non-binding, with an opt-out clause for any country that feels its domestic industry is getting short-changed.
Downing Street has been careful not to gloat. A spokesperson offered the standard line: “The UK welcomes any NATO ally’s commitment to burden-sharing.” But behind closed doors, the mood is euphoric. A senior defence source told me: “We’ve been banging the drum for Nordic integration for years. This could be the breakthrough we need to get the Nordics pulling together on defence.”
The unspoken risk is that this alliance becomes a club of the willing, while southern European members like Italy and Spain continue to drag their heels. And there’s the perennial fear that a change of government in any one Nordic country could unravel the whole deal.
For now, though, the dominos are falling. Finland and Sweden have already submitted their NATO applications. Denmark is raising its game. And the UK is positioning itself as the bridge between the Nordics and the rest of the alliance. It’s a classic piece of realpolitik, dressed up in the language of solidarity. But as I’ve learned from covering defence procurement scandals for two decades, the devil is always in the side letters and the budget loopholes.
I’ll be tracking this story as the fine print emerges. Stay tuned.
