The bombs fell on Tyre within hours of Tehran's warning. Israeli jets pounded the Lebanese city hard, ignoring Iran's demand to cease operations immediately. This is a deliberate provocation, a middle finger to the ayatollahs.
Westminster's whisperers are alive with chatter. The timing is everything. Iran's ultimatum, delivered through back channels, was meant to draw a line. Israel crossed it before the ink dried. This is a game of chicken, and Netanyahu went for the horn.
Cable traffic shows a split in the cabinet. Hardliners see this as a chance to degrade Hezbollah's infrastructure. Moderates fear a wider war. But in the Lobby, the word is that the prime minister feels emboldened. His joint address to Congress last week gave him a blank cheque.
Whitehall is nervous. The Foreign Office is scrambling to draft contingency plans. Leaked memos suggest they are preparing for a full-scale evacuation of Britons from Lebanon. The intelligence assessment is bleak: retaliation is not a question of if, but when. Hezbollah has vowed revenge, and their rocket arsenal is formidable.
The streets of Tyre are silent, save for wailing sirens. Plumes of smoke rise over the ancient harbour. Local officials say strikes hit a suspected weapons depot near the city centre. Casualty figures are climbing. This will play badly in Arab capitals already furious over Gaza.
Downing Street will issue the usual calls for restraint. But behind the scenes, the prime minister is facing pressure from his own backbenches to condemn Israel. The party's Muslim vote is hemorrhaging. The polls show Labour gaining ground among older voters who fear escalation.
The game has changed. Iran's ultimatum was a test. Israel's response reveals their calculation: they believe the US will back them to the hilt, and that Iran is bluffing. But bluffing in the Middle East often ends in fire.
Watch the oil markets tomorrow. They will tell you what the pension funds really think. And watch the Commons. The rebels are sharpening their knives. This could get very real, very fast.
