Colombia's presidential election is heading for a bitter runoff, pitting a leftist former guerrilla against a conservative businessman who has been described as a Trump ally. Sources confirm that British intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the situation, fearing the outcome could destabilise a region already scarred by political violence and drug trafficking.
Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla and current senator, won the first round with 40% of the vote. He faces Rodolfo Hernández, a construction magnate and former mayor of Bucaramanga, who surprised observers by taking 28%, edging out the conservative establishment candidate. Hernández has modelled his campaign on Donald Trump, using anti-corruption rhetoric and social media outbursts. He has called Petro a "terrorist" and warned that a Petro presidency would turn Colombia into "another Venezuela".
Documents obtained by this newsroom show that the UK's Foreign Office has convened an emergency working group on Colombia. The group, code-named Operation Condor, is assessing risks to British investments in the country's oil and mining sectors. A leaked memo states: "A Petro victory would likely mean a renegotiation of contracts and closer ties with Venezuela and Cuba. This could have a destabilising effect on the region."
Petro has pledged to end oil exploration and shift away from fossil fuels. He has also promised to implement the 2016 peace deal with FARC rebels, which has been stalled by the current government. Hernández, by contrast, has vowed to take a hard line on crime and drug trafficking, but his campaign has been marred by allegations of corruption. He is currently under investigation for bribery involving a garbage collection contract.
Both candidates have expressed support for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, reflecting Colombia's desperate search for economic alternatives. The country has seen massive protests against inequality and police violence, with more than 80 people killed during demonstrations last year.
The runoff is scheduled for 19 June. British diplomats are urging calm, but sources say the atmosphere is tense. "This is not just about Colombia," one source said. "It's about the entire balance of power in Latin America."
Meanwhile, the United States has remained relatively quiet, with President Biden avoiding direct comment. But Trump allies have rallied behind Hernández, with former Trump adviser Steve Bannon calling him "the only hope for Colombia".
The stakes could not be higher. If Petro wins, he would be the first leftist president in Colombia's modern history. If Hernández wins, he would be the country's first outsider populist. Either way, the old guard is finished. But what comes next is anyone's guess.
