The result is in. A landslide. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party has swept the polls in Ethiopia. Official figures show a commanding majority. But the numbers don't tell the whole story. The opposition cried foul before a single ballot was counted. Now, they are crying mutiny. The British government had banked heavily on the peace process. A fragile truce in Tigray. A delicate dance with the Oromo factions. All that is now at risk.
Westminster sources are nervous. One Foreign Office insider described the mood as “jittery.” The fear is simple. A weakened opposition means no credible check on Abiy’s power. And that could embolden hardliners on both sides. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is already accusing the government of rigging. Their statement was blunt. “This election is a sham. We will not accept it.”
British diplomats had worked overtime to ensure the vote was free and fair. They trained election observers. They funded civil society groups. They even leaned on Abiy to allow international monitors. But the monitors have reported irregularities. Harassing of opposition candidates. Ballot box stuffing in remote regions. The British High Commission in Addis Ababa is staying quiet. For now.
But the noise is getting louder. Backbench MPs are demanding answers. Labour’s shadow foreign secretary has tabled an urgent question. “What is the government doing to salvage the peace process?” she asked. The Foreign Office response was tepid. “We are monitoring the situation closely.”
This is a pattern. The British government has a history of backing strongmen in the Horn of Africa. Eritrea. Somalia. Now Ethiopia. The peace deal was supposed to be different. It was meant to be a template for stability. Instead, it looks like a recipe for more conflict.
The Prime Minister’s office in Downing Street is divided. Some aides argue that Abiy is the only game in town. Others insist that Britain must distance itself from a flawed election. One former ambassador put it bluntly. “We are sleepwalking into a disaster.”
The numbers back that up. The Prosperity Party won 90 percent of the seats. But turnout was low. And in Tigray, the election was barely held at all. The region remains under a state of emergency. The scars of war are still fresh. The peace deal was always a house of cards. Now the wind is blowing.
What happens next? The opposition will take to the streets. The TPLF will rally its fighters. And Abiy will consolidate his power. The British government will be forced to choose. Either back the result and lose credibility. Or condemn the election and risk the peace deal collapsing entirely.
This is a moment of reckoning. The Foreign Office is scrambling. Emergency meetings are being held. But the damage may already be done. The landslide victory has not brought stability. It has brought fear. And that is a dangerous currency in the Horn of Africa.
Watch this space. The lobby is buzzing. Leaks are already emerging. One Whitehall source told me the Treasury is worried about aid implications. “We can’t be seen to bankroll a dictatorship,” they said. But the alternative is a return to civil war. There are no easy choices here. Only bad ones.
Stay tuned. This story is far from over.