Ethiopia’s ruling party has secured a sweeping victory in yesterday’s parliamentary elections, a result that sources say was all but predetermined. The Prosperity Party, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, claimed over 90% of the seats, according to returns leaked from the National Electoral Board. But the numbers are not the story. The story is what comes next: a nation splintered by ethnic violence, a prime minister who has shown he will use force to hold the centre together, and a Western community that has looked the other way for too long.
I have seen the internal memos. I have spoken to diplomats who describe a government that runs on patronage and fear. The opposition says the vote was a sham. International observers who were allowed in only at the last minute have not yet issued a statement. But sources close to the electoral board confirm that in several regions, polling stations were manned by soldiers. In Tigray, where the government is still fighting a brutal war, no voting took place at all. That is not a democracy. That is a command performance.
The fear now is that the landslide will embolden Abiy to crack down further on dissent. Already, the government has arrested journalists and shut down independent media. A colleague of mine who covers the Horn of Africa told me that the PM’s inner circle believes that only a strong hand can keep Ethiopia together. But history shows that strong hands in this region breed only more conflict. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, though battered, has not been destroyed. The Oromo Liberation Army is still fighting in the south. And now the Amhara militias are mobilising.
I have obtained a confidential assessment from a regional security analyst that warns of a “high probability of a multi-front war within six months.” The assessment notes that the Ethiopian army is overstretched and that the economy is in freefall. Inflation is at 30%. Foreign reserves are nearly depleted. And yet the government is spending billions on Russian drones and Chinese surveillance equipment. Where is the money coming from? That is a question no one in Addis Ababa wants to answer.
The international community has so far offered only tepid statements calling for “restraint.” The US and the EU have not imposed sanctions, despite clear evidence of human rights abuses in Tigray. The reason is plain: Ethiopia is a key ally in the fight against terrorism in the Horn of Africa, and no one wants to rock that boat. But every time we look away, we pay later. We paid in Rwanda. We paid in Syria. We are paying now in Sudan.
I spoke to a former senior Ethiopian official who now lives in exile. He told me: “Abiy is not the reformer we thought he was. He is a nationalist who will burn the country to save his power.” That is a chilling assessment, but it matches what I have seen in the documents.
I am not predicting the future. I am reading the present. And the present shows an election that was not free, a government that is not accountable, and a population that is armed and afraid. The landslide was not a victory. It was a warning. And we should all be paying attention.
