The ruling Prosperity Party has secured a sweeping majority in Ethiopia's parliamentary elections, a result that sources on the ground confirm is deepening divisions in a nation already fractured by war. The official tally gives Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's coalition more than 410 of the 436 seats contested. But in the regions of Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, where voting was delayed or boycotted, the numbers tell a different story. One opposition strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: 'This isn't a mandate. It's a map of where the next battle lines will be drawn.'
Documents obtained by this newsroom show the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia received at least 230 formal complaints of irregularities before polling day. Witnesses in several districts reported ballot boxes arriving unsealed. In Addis Ababa, a city of 5 million, turnout was officially 67 per cent. But in the rural highlands of Amhara, where federal troops have been fighting Fano militia groups since April, whole villages did not vote at all. A local aid worker described seeing polling stations 'locked and empty' while armed police patrol led the roads.
The victory consolidates Abiy's power just as his government faces multiple insurgencies. Western diplomats privately express alarm that a parliament with almost no credible opposition will accelerate the spiral into conflict. One European attaché told me: 'They are handing him a loaded gun and pretending the safety catch is on.' The prime minister's office has dismissed such warnings as 'neocolonial interference.'
But the numbers are hard to argue with. Ethiopia's economy is in freefall. Inflation hit 34 per cent in June. Foreign reserves are nearly exhausted. The International Monetary Fund has suspended its lending programme due to lack of transparency over military spending. And the war in Tigray, which ended in a peace deal in November 2022, left an estimated 600,000 dead. Now, Amhara and Oromia are burning.
Sources in the Ministry of Defence confirm that desertion rates have doubled in the past year. Soldiers are not being paid on time. Equipment is being sold on the black market. One former general, now in exile in Nairobi, said: 'The army is a shell. If the Fano decide to march on Addis, there is nothing to stop them.'
The Prosperity Party's landslide is not a sign of stability. It is a sign that the mechanisms for peaceful change have collapsed. When you shut out the opposition, you force it underground. When you steal an election, you legitimise the gun. And when you have 120 million people, the youngest population on earth, and no jobs, no food, no hope: you get civil war.
We will be tracking this story. Follow the money. Follow the bodies. Because in Ethiopia, the countdown has already begun.