Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has secured a landslide victory in last week’s general election, a result that sources confirm was met with immediate alarm among diplomats and analysts. The vote, held under a state of emergency in two regions, saw the party of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claim 410 of the 436 parliamentary seats. But behind the numbers, a more troubling narrative emerges: one of suppressed opposition, ethnic tension, and the smell of another war.
Uncovered documents from the National Election Board of Ethiopia reveal that opposition parties in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia were systematically barred from fielding candidates. In Tigray, where federal forces have been battling regional forces since November 2020, no election took place at all. “The election was a charade,” one Western diplomat told me on condition of anonymity. “They called it a vote, but it was really a consolidation of power by force.”
The British Foreign Office, in a carefully worded statement, called for “stability and inclusive dialogue” while expressing concern over “reports of irregularities.” But sources inside the ministry say the real fear is that the election result will embolden Abiy’s more hardline faction, which has long advocated for a military solution in Tigray. “The British are terrified of a wider conflict,” a former UK ambassador with deep ties to the region said. “They’re trying to keep the lid on a boiling pot.”
The pot is indeed boiling. In Amhara, regional forces have been accused of ethnic cleansing against Tigrayan civilians. In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army continues to wage a guerilla war. The United Nations reports that 5.2 million people need aid, and 400,000 are already in famine conditions. The Prosperity Party’s response has been to arrest journalists and shut down independent media.
I spoke with a senior Ethiopian official who insisted the election was free and fair. “We have a mandate to govern,” he said. When pressed on the opposition’s absence, he replied, “They chose to boycott.” It is a familiar refrain from autocrats: the opposition’s fault for not participating in a rigged game.
The warning signs are everywhere. Military spending has doubled since 2019. Abiy recently purged his cabinet of moderates. And in a pattern that echoes the lead-up to the Tigray war, the government has begun mobilising militia groups in Amhara and Afar. “They are preparing for the next round,” said a retired general who now works for a human rights organisation.
The British government, meanwhile, is trying to salvage its reputation as a peacebroker. It was a key backer of Abiy after he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. But that prize now seems like a cruel joke. “We invested heavily in Abiy,” a Foreign Office source admitted. “We can’t just walk away.” But the cost of staying is becoming steeper: British aid is already funding programmes in areas under rebel control, and there are fears that a new conflict could trigger a refugee crisis that washes up on Europe’s shores.
For ordinary Ethiopians, the future looks bleak. In a restaurant in Addis Ababa, a young man told me, “We voted because we feared what would happen if we didn’t. But nothing has changed. The same people who killed our neighbours are still in power.” He asked not to be named. The fear is thick enough to cut with a knife. The election, far from bringing stability, has only hardened the lines of conflict. And the British calls for calm sound hollow when the man they helped put in charge is tightening his grip on a gun.