The question, whispered in the corridors of Whitehall, is no longer if. It is when. When does the Trump administration lose its grip on the Iran crisis? Sources close to the Foreign Office tell me the private alarm in Westminster is palpable. This is not the usual fog of war. This is the fog of a White House that has painted itself into a corner.
The killing of Qasem Soleimani was a gamble. A big one. The calculation, as I am told, was that Tehran would fold. That the Supreme Leader would blink. Instead, the response came in the form of ballistic missiles aimed at American bases. A response designed to save face, yes. But also a response that escalates the cycle. The question now is: what next?
UK intelligence, according to my sources, has been tracking the internal White House debate. It is, to put it mildly, chaotic. The President is surrounded by hawks. Pompeo. Esper. They have his ear. But there are also voices, quieter ones, warning that the path leads to a quagmire. The problem is that Trump, the dealmaker, the man who promised to end endless wars, now finds himself in the middle of one.
Consider the polling. A chattering class obsession, I know. But bear with me. The President’s approval ratings among independents are slipping. The base is with him, for now. But suburban swing voters? They are watching the news. They see the parades, the chants of “Death to America.” They remember the Iraq war. This could be a 2020 liability.
Then there is the British angle. We are in this, whether we like it or not. The Royal Navy is on alert in the Gulf. The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is trying to walk a tightrope. Publicly, he backs the US. Privately, his team is furious. They were not consulted. They were informed. There is a difference. The special relationship is taking strain.
The strategy, if you can call it that, appears to be hitting the Iranian proxies. The militias. The IRGC. But this is a game of whack-a-mole. Hit one, two more pop up. The Iranians are patient. They have played the long game for forty years. They can wait out a one-term president.
And what of the diplomatic track? Dead. The JCPOA was discarded. Europe is sidelined. The UN is irrelevant. The only language being spoken is that of missiles and drones. That is a dangerous lexicon.
I am told the real fear in Whitehall is not an all-out war. That is unlikely. The fear is miscalculation. A tit-for-tat that spirals. A Russian or Chinese angle. A cyber attack that cripples infrastructure. Something that pulls us in, deeper.
The mood in the cabinet office is grim. Officials are preparing contingency plans for a regional conflict. They are also, quietly, gaming out a scenario where the US Congress forces a de-escalation. But that requires Trump to listen. And he does not have a track record of that.
So, has Trump lost control? The answer, from those who watch closely, is that he never really had it. The machinery of state, the bureaucracy, the military-industrial complex – they are running their own game. The President is a player, not a master. And that is the most worrying thought of all.
Watch this space. The next move is Tehran’s. Or perhaps, the next mistake.
