A leaked government analysis obtained by this newsroom paints a grim picture of Britain's future. Internal documents from the Department for Work and Pensions project that by 2029, one in six 16-to-24-year-olds will be classified as NEET: not in employment, education, or training. That is 1.
2 million young people locked out of the system. Sources close to the analysis confirm the figure has accelerated sharply since 2023, driven by a collapse in entry-level jobs in retail and hospitality, sectors that have shed over 200,000 positions in two years. The data, marked 'official-sensitive', warns of a 'generational scarring event' if no intervention comes.
Yet the Treasury has blocked calls for a job guarantee scheme, citing inflation fears. One adviser told me: 'They are gambling with a whole cohort.' The effect is already visible.
Youth unemployment in the North East has hit 18 per cent. In parts of Blackpool, it is nearly one in four. At a community centre in Manchester, I spoke to 19-year-old Liam, who has sent out 142 applications since finishing a construction course last June.
'No one calls back. It is like we are invisible,' he said. The government says it is investing in skills, but the documents show spending on further education has been cut by 14 per cent in real terms since 2015.
Meanwhile, the number of apprenticeships has fallen by a third. The human cost is mounting. A separate Public Health England briefing notes that NEET young people are three times more likely to report poor mental health.
This is not a crisis that will solve itself. It is a policy failure, born of neglect and number-crunching. The question is: how many more will be left behind before Whitehall acts?
