Satellite imagery confirms a strategic pivot: Russian tank columns are converging on a Donbas city. This is not a feint. The threat vector is clear.
Moscow is concentrating heavy armour for what appears to be a decisive push. NATO intelligence warns of an imminent escalation. They are correct.
This is a chess move designed to fracture Ukrainian defensive lines and seize a key logistics hub. The hardware is the message: T-90M tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, and supporting artillery batteries. The absence of electronic warfare assets suggests they expect localised air superiority or are willing to accept ground-based attrition.
The operational failure would be if Ukraine fails to reposition its own reserves. The intelligence failure would be if the West misreads this as a limited offensive. It is not.
It is a strategic attempt to break the stalemate. The real question is whether Kyiv has the offensive counter-punch to halt this thrust before it gains momentum. Expect heavy electronic warfare jamming in the sector to degrade Ukrainian drone reconnaissance.
The next 72 hours will determine the shape of the summer campaign. NATO must now decide: escalate support or watch the city fall.
