Westminster is buzzing. Sir Keir Starmer has just thrown his weight behind Donald Trump’s final determination on Iran. The move is a gamble. It signals a break from the cautious diplomacy of recent years.
Downing Street confirmed the PM’s position late this afternoon. A senior No. 10 source told me: “The Prime Minister is clear. Iran’s nuclear programme poses an existential threat to global security. We must act decisively.”
But not everyone is cheering. Labour backbenchers are restless. I’ve had three MPs from the Socialist Campaign Group in my ear since lunch. “This is a blank cheque for Trump’s adventurism,” one said. Another called it “a betrayal of the nuclear deal.”
The PM’s move is a sharp pivot. He is aligning with the White House just as Trump prepares to tighten the screws on Tehran. The determination, expected within days, will likely trigger snapback sanctions under the JCPOA framework. Britain is preparing for consequences.
Officials are warning of a “credible and immediate” nuclear threat. The assessment, shared with cabinet this morning, cites intelligence that Iran has enriched uranium to near-weapons grade. The word “red line” is being used in briefings. I haven’t heard that since the Iraq war.
Starmer’s calculation is clear. He wants to cement the special relationship. Trump is transactional. Support now could pay dividends on trade and security later. But the domestic politics are treacherous. The left is already mobilising. Expect letters of no confidence to be drafted by morning.
Cabinet sources tell me the Foreign Secretary was initially reluctant. He favoured a joint European statement. But Starmer overruled him. “The PM didn’t want to be left on the sidelines,” a senior minister confided. “He wants to be in the room.”
What happens next? The determination will be submitted to the UN Security Council. Russia and China will veto. But the US will claim the mechanism is triggered anyway. Legal chaos. Diplomatic mayhem. Exactly what Trump likes.
For Starmer, this is a defining moment. He is betting his premiership on a gamble that Iran will blink. But the hardliners in Tehran don’t blink. They double down.
I’m told the British assessment is that Iran could produce a warhead within six months. The intelligence is patchy, but the consensus in the room was grim. “We are closer to a nuclear Iran than at any point in a decade,” one official said.
The opposition is circling. The Lib Dems have demanded a Commons vote. The SNP are calling it “reckless.” Even some Tory MPs are uneasy. “Starmer is dancing to Trump’s tune,” a former cabinet minister told me. “That’s not leadership. That’s surrender.”
Downing Street is bracing for a bumpy ride. The PM will face questions tomorrow at PMQs. Expect fireworks.
This is a big call. It reshapes British foreign policy. It puts Starmer firmly in the Trump camp. And it exposes him to charges of being a US puppet. The coming days will test his mettle.
I’ll be watching the lobbies, the leaks, and the letters. The game is on.
Eleanor Rigby, Political Bureau Chief
