The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point again. Tanker traffic has ground to a halt. Three reasons why this is happening now.
Reason one: Tehran is sending signals. Sources close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard say the slowdown is a deliberate act. A message to Washington. The message? “We can close the strait. Don’t test us.” It’s brinksmanship. Classic Iranian playbook.
Reason two: The insurance crisis. Lloyd’s of London has quietly hiked premiums for any vessel transiting the strait. Some insurers have withdrawn cover entirely. No insurance means no sailing. Shipowners are not taking the risk. Not when one miscalculation could send a supertanker to the bottom.
Reason three: The US Navy is stretched thin. The Pentagon is redeploying assets to the Indo-Pacific. That leaves a gap in the Gulf. Fewer patrols. Less deterrence. The Iranians know it. They are exploiting the vacuum.
What happens next? Watch the oil price. It’s already twitching. If this drags on, expect a spike. Whitehall is nervous. Downing Street’s energy security team is in crisis talks tonight. The game is on.
I’m told the Foreign Office is exploring “quiet channels” to de-escalate. But quiet channels don’t move tankers. Only a clear show of force or a backchannel deal will do that. Neither is imminent.
Keep your eyes on the Gulf. This is not over.
