A third of Britons now believe a university degree is not worth the cost. That's the headline from a new survey released this morning as the landmark Student Loan Inquiry kicks off in London. The figures are a gut punch to the Westminster consensus that pushed higher education expansion for decades.
Whitehall sources tell me the Treasury is watching nervously. The inquiry, chaired by a cross-party panel of MPs, will probe the sustainability of the current student loan system. Total outstanding student debt now exceeds £200bn. Most will never be repaid.
The polling, conducted by YouGov for the inquiry, paints a bleak picture. Among 25-34 year olds, the group most likely to have attended university under the £9,000 fee regime, 42% say their degree was not value for money. Only 28% say it was. The rest are undecided.
The political ramifications are significant. Labour's current position, backed by the unions, is to abolish tuition fees entirely. Cost: £9bn a year. The Conservatives prefer tweaks, such as lowering the repayment threshold or extending the loan term. Neither side wants to touch the £200bn debt mountain.
But here's the real story. Backbench MPs on both sides are muttering. A cross-party group of around 40 MPs has already formed to push for radical reform. They want a graduate tax. They want interest rates slashed. They want the debt written off after 30 years, not 40. The inquiry is their vehicle.
Inside the Lobby, chatter is that Education Secretary Damian Hinds is privately sympathetic. But Number 10 is twitchy. Any move that looks like a bailout for graduates risks alienating the 50% of voters who never went to university. That's an electoral suicide note.
Today's session will hear from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Their latest report shows that for 40% of graduates, the cost of their degree is less than the value of their future additional earnings. But for the bottom 20%, the return is negative. The inquiry chair, Labour MP Emma Hardy, is expected to hammer this point.
Watch for the Treasury's response. They will argue the system is already progressive: high earners pay more because of the income-contingent repayment. But the data shows something else. The lowest-earning graduates never repay their loans. The debt is a trap. They carry it for decades, impacting their ability to get a mortgage or save for retirement.
The political temperature is rising. A snap poll for the BBC this morning found that 56% of voters want the government to reduce the burden on graduates. Only 21% think the current system is fair. This is a live grenade.
Expect fireworks. The inquiry runs until December. Its final report will be published in the new year. But the battle lines are drawn. It's not just about fees. It's about who benefits from the promise of higher education. And whether that promise is now broken for a generation.
