The great man's Midas touch, it seems, is not infallible. Last night in Iowa, a Trump-endorsed candidate went down in flames. The Republican establishment, bruised and battered from years of populist onslaught, finally drew blood.
The result in Iowa's 1st congressional district is a message. A signal. The old guard is not dead yet. They have learned to fight back, using the former president's own weapons: endorsements, money, and a ruthless ground game.
Steve King's old seat was the prize. A conservative stronghold. The Trump-backed candidate, state Senator Jake Chapman, was expected to cruise. He didn't. Instead, businesswoman and establishment favourite Ashley Hinson eked out a narrow victory after a bitter recount.
What happened? The polls had Chapman ahead. The rallies were packed. He had the endorsement. He had the energy. But the establishment had something more valuable: a coordinated operation. They poured cash into attack ads, activated the donor network, and deployed every precinct captain they could muster.
It was a textbook backlash. The GOP elite, long accused of being feckless, showed they can still play hardball. They targeted Chapman's record on taxes and spending, painting him as too extreme for the district. It stuck.
But here's the rub: this was a primary, not a general. The party base is still Trump's. The establishment's victory may be pyrrhic. If Hinson wins in November, she will owe her win to a divided party. If she loses, the recriminations will be brutal.
For Trump, this is a personal blow. His endorsement is his sword. A loss dulls the blade. Other candidates will now feel emboldened to sidestep his backing. The Never Trump crowd will crow. But they should not be so smug. One swallow does not a summer make.
The bigger picture: the GOP civil war is not over. It is evolving. The establishment has learned to fight on populist turf. They are using the same tools, the same rhetoric, the same fear of the 'other'. They are, in effect, becoming Trumpist to beat Trumpists.
Is this a sustainable strategy? History suggests not. Populism is a wave, not a permanent shift. But waves can drown you if you stand in the wrong place. The establishment is now surfing the wave, hoping to steer it back to safe shores.
In the Capitol, the news was met with a mix of relief and terror. Relief that the party can still win without Trump. Terror that the backlash could fracture the coalition ahead of November. The Lobby is buzzing with speculation: is this the beginning of the end for Trump's grip on the party? Or just a blip?
Watch this space. The next test comes in a few weeks, in Alabama and Ohio. More Trump-backed candidates, more establishment pushback. The game is afoot.
One thing is certain: the old rules no longer apply. The GOP is a party in flux, a chaotic dance of factions and egos. The establishment's victory in Iowa is a move, not the endgame. The music is still playing.
