A political earthquake has struck Colombia. Rodrigo Hernández, a populist firebrand endorsed by former US president Donald Trump, has secured a narrow victory in the country's presidential election. The result sends shockwaves through Washington, but for London, it presents a distinct and pressing problem: the future of the UK's strategic trade relationship with Latin America's third-largest economy.
Hernández, a 57-year-old former mayor of Barranquilla, ran on a platform of sweeping change, railing against the 'corrupt elite' and promising to renegotiate every international agreement he deems unfavourable. His surprise win against the establishment candidate, María Fernanda Santos, has left British diplomats scrambling. Sources within the Foreign Office confirm that contingency plans are being drafted, but officials admit they were caught off guard.
The UK-Colombia trade relationship has grown steadily over the past decade, with bilateral trade reaching £1.2 billion in 2024. British exports include machinery, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. But Hernández has made clear his disdain for 'foreign interference' and has threatened to review all trade accords. His campaign statements, unearthed by investigators, suggest he may demand renegotiations that could impose higher tariffs on British goods.
'This is a nightmare scenario for the Department for Business and Trade,' a Whitehall insider told me. 'We've been cultivating ties with Colombia for years, and now we have a president who sees the UK as part of the same old elite he wants to tear down.'
The timing could not be worse. The UK is already grappling with post-Brexit trade challenges and seeking new markets. And Hernández's victory may embolden other populist leaders in the region, further complicating British efforts to secure trade deals across Latin America.
But the immediate concern is the fate of the UK-Colombia Trade Agreement, signed in 2018. Hernández has hinted at a 'full audit' of the pact, and his economic adviser, a little-known economist named Luis Pardo, has described the deal as 'unbalanced'. Pardo's past writings, discovered in a leaked document cache, call for prioritising domestic industries and reducing imports.
British companies with significant Colombian exposure are already feeling the heat. A spokesperson for BP, which operates oil fields in the country, declined to comment, but an internal memo obtained by this paper reveals 'deep concern' about potential changes to the regulatory environment.
Hernández's victory also raises questions about Colombia's relations with the US, which could indirectly affect the UK. Trump's endorsement may have galvanised Hernández's base, but the president-elect has also signalled a willingness to align with Beijing if Washington is not accommodating. Chinese state media have already lauded his win, and Chinese oil companies are known to be eyeing Colombian assets.
For British diplomats, the priority is to establish a working relationship before Hernández takes office in August. But early signs are not encouraging. The president-elect has so far refused calls from the British ambassador in Bogotá, and his campaign team has warned that 'old-world powers' should not expect special treatment.
The coming weeks will be critical. If Hernández follows through on his threats, British exporters could face a significant blow. And the pattern is all too familiar: a leader elected on a wave of anti-establishment anger, then consolidating power by attacking foreign interests. The question is whether the UK can adapt before it's too late.
