Donald Trump has confirmed he will visit India next month, a move that signals a warming of ties with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and puts British trade negotiators on edge. Sources close to the former US president say the trip, scheduled for late February, is aimed at shoring up alliances ahead of a potential 2025 election run. But for London, the visit carries a darker subtext: a chance for Trump to undercut UK trade deals with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
Whitehall officials have privately expressed concern that Trump’s transactional diplomacy could unravel months of careful British efforts to secure a post-Brexit trade pact with India. Documents obtained by this paper show that UK trade secretary Kemi Badenoch’s team has been monitoring Trump’s movements since November. One briefing note, marked ‘sensitive’, warns that ‘any US-India bilateral advance during a Trump visit may diminish UK leverage in ongoing FTA negotiations’.
Trump’s itinerary is not yet public, but insiders say he will meet with Modi and address a business summit in New Delhi. The White House, under Biden, has kept India at arm’s length on trade, allowing Britain a window. But Trump, who called Modi a ‘true friend’ during his presidency, is expected to dangle tariff concessions and defence deals that could freeze out British firms. A former Trump adviser told me: ‘The president sees India as a prize. He won’t let the Brits get there first.’
The timing is awkward. Just last week, UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced a new ‘India-UK investment corridor’ during a visit to Mumbai. Now, that corridor may lead straight into a Trump roadblock. British exporters in sectors like whisky, automotive and pharmaceuticals are particularly vulnerable. India’s 150% tariff on Scotch whisky has been a sticking point in talks; Trump could offer a similar break for American bourbon, undercutting a key UK bargaining chip.
Modi’s government, for its part, has played a careful game. New Delhi has welcomed the thaw with Washington while keeping London engaged. But a senior Indian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that ‘Trump offers a more direct path to market access without the bureaucracy of EU-style negotiations’. That sentiment is precisely what keeps British trade officials awake at night.
The visit also raises questions about UK national security. Trump has previously hinted at scaling back intelligence-sharing with the Five Eyes network if allies do not fall in line on trade. A former MI6 officer, now a consultant, said: ‘If Trump starts offering India technology transfers without British oversight, it undermines our strategic position in the Indo-Pacific.’
British business groups are urging calm. The CBI’s director of international trade, John Foster, said: ‘We have strong fundamentals with India. A Trump visit does not erase years of UK-India co-operation.’ But behind the scenes, the mood is nervous. One lobbyist told me: ‘We’re watching this like hawks. Any sign Trump gets preferential terms, we’re sunk.’
No 10 declined to comment on the visit, saying only that ‘the UK maintains a close and productive relationship with India and the United States’. But sources say Rishi Sunak’s team is already planning damage limitation. A Downing Street insider confirmed that ‘contingency talks are under way at the highest levels’.
This is a developing story. What is clear is that Trump’s return to the global stage, even as a private citizen, is rattling a British trade establishment that thought it had sidestepped him. The question now is whether London can move fast enough to secure its India deal before Trump arrives in Delhi. If not, British exporters may find themselves shut out of one of the world’s most promising markets. And in the transactional world of trade, that is a loss that will be hard to reverse.
