A hedge. That is what the Trade Secretary is calling the new post-Brexit deal with Canada. The news broke this morning, just hours before the North American free trade deadline. But insiders call it something else. A safety net. A message to Brussels.
The deal, confirmed in a hastily arranged statement from the Department for International Trade, is being sold as a 'strategic deepening' of our trading relationship with Ottawa. It includes tariff reductions on British cars, Scotch whisky, and financial services. In return, Canadian beef and pharmaceuticals get easier access to our market. Modest gains. But politically significant.
Why now? The timing is everything. The North American free trade deadline is a pressure point. The US is playing hardball. Mexico is nervous. And the UK? We are showing we can walk and chew gum at the same time. A source close to the Trade Secretary told me: 'This proves we are not dependent on any one deal. We have options.'
Westminster is buzzing. The Brexiteer wing of the Conservative party is cheering. 'Global Britain in action,' one backbencher texted me. But the sceptics are circling. Labour's trade spokesman called it 'a sticking plaster' and demanded to see the full text. The Lib Dems are asking why it was negotiated in secret.
Let's look at the numbers. Canada buys about £20 billion of UK goods a year. That is dwarfed by our trade with the EU. But the symbolism matters more than the GDP impact. It shows the UK can do bilateral deals. It sends a signal to Washington that we have other friends.
The domestic politics are delicate. The Prime Minister is already under pressure from the 1922 Committee. A successful trade deal, even a small one, buys her breathing room. But failure to finalise the US deal would be catastrophic. This Canada agreement is a card to play in that game.
What happens next? The text will be published tomorrow. Then the scrutiny begins. The International Trade Select Committee will want answers. The business groups will want clarity on rules of origin. And the Canadian parliament still needs to ratify it. Nothing is done until it is done.
But for now, the Trade Secretary gets a good headline. And in the game of politics, that is a win. The question is whether it will be enough to survive the fallout if the North American talks collapse. We will know very soon.
One more thing. I hear the French are furious. They see this as poaching on their traditional trading turf. Expect some sharp words from Paris in the coming days. The game, as always, continues.
