Something is off. The White House is talking up a Sunday signing for the US-Iran nuclear framework. But in Tehran, the tone is different. A senior Iranian official told Reuters they “haven’t agreed to anything yet.” The usual brinkmanship, or a genuine last-minute wobble?
Downing Street is watching this closely. Very closely. The PM’s national security adviser has been in constant touch with his American counterparts. The mood in Whitehall? Cautious optimism, laced with deep scepticism. One cabinet source described it to me as “like waiting for a deal on Brexit, but with more centrifuges.”
The text of the agreement has been circulating among a tight circle of officials for the past 72 hours. I understand the UK’s chief concern is the sunset clause on uranium enrichment. The original 2030 deadline is said to be “under pressure.” That is the sort of phrase that terrifies the FCDO non-proliferation team.
And here is where it gets interesting. The Treasury is worried about the sanctions relief mechanism. Oil exports. SWIFT access. The usual suspects. But there’s a nuance: the UK wants to ensure any relief is reversible. “We need a dial, not a light switch,” one official told me. That is a direct quote.
On the diplomatic front, the Foreign Secretary has been burning up the phone lines. Calls to Blinken, calls to the Iranian foreign minister’s office (via the Swiss channel, of course). The message is the same: “Don’t blow it now.” But do the Iranians care? Their economy is on its knees. The Supreme Leader is under pressure from hardliners. A deal keeps the regime afloat, but at a cost they might not want to pay.
Meanwhile, the usual suspects in the Commons are sharpening their knives. The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee has already tabled an Urgent Question for Monday. Expect theatrical performances from both sides. The right of the Tory party will scream appeasement. Labour will urge caution and praise diplomacy. It is a script we have seen before.
But the real game is in the data. Our polls show that the British public is split, but a slim majority favours the deal if it prevents a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. But that is a fragile consensus. One leak, one negative headline, and it could shift.
So watch Sunday. Watch the wording. The difference between “historic breakthrough” and “significant progress” is a mile of political cover. And for this government, which is battered and tired, they need a win. But they also need a scapegoat if it goes wrong.
That, dear reader, is the game.
