The White House confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military installations in Syria and Iraq early this morning. The strikes come just hours after a suspected Iranian drone attack on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel, a British-flagged container ship, reportedly sustained damage but no casualties.
Whitehall sources say UK intelligence assets in the region have been placed on high alert. The Joint Intelligence Committee has been convened for an emergency session. This is not a drill.
The Prime Minister was briefed at 6am. Downing Street has not yet issued a statement. But the whispers from Number 10 suggest support for the US action. Cautious support, for now.
Inside the cabinet, there is unease. The Foreign Secretary is said to be 'deeply concerned' about escalation. The Defence Secretary is more hawkish, as you would expect. Expect a full cabinet call later today.
The real worry here is the backbenches. The Labour left is already sharpening its knives. The SNP will demand a Commons statement. This is a flashpoint.
Behind the scenes, the intelligence community is watching two things: the reaction from Tehran, and the status of UK forces in the Gulf. We have two frigates in the region. They are on a shorter leash now.
What does this mean for domestic politics? A war-footing tends to shift polling. The Prime Minister gets a bump, usually. But this is fragile. If casualties mount, or if the strikes are seen as a failure, that bump evaporates overnight.
The key player to watch is the Chief of the Defence Staff. He has the PM's ear. He is pushing for a 'measured but firm' response. But the clock is ticking.
One thing is clear: the old rules of engagement are gone. The US is taking a harder line. The UK is in a supporting role, for now. But the question everyone is asking in Westminster: how long before we are in the lead?
