The Westminster lobby is buzzing this morning. Xi Jinping’s train crossed the Yalu River into Pyongyang. First visit by a Chinese leader to North Korea in 14 years. The usual diplomatic fluff about ‘traditional friendship’ is already being telegraphed. But don’t be fooled. This is a power play. Pure and simple.
Whitehall sources tell me the Prime Minister’s team are watching closely. They see a gamble. Xi needs Kim. North Korea is a buffer state, a card to play against US sanctions, a lever on the Korean peninsula. But Kim needs Xi more. Desperately. The North Korean economy is on its knees. Sanctions bite hard. Food shortages are real.
So who holds the upper hand? Conventional wisdom says China. It provides 90% of North Korea’s trade. It is the lifeline. But there are whispers in the FCO that Xi may be walking into a trap. Kim is unpredictable. He has a history of extracting concessions while giving little in return. Remember the six-party talks? Stalemate for years.
The real question for UK strategists: does this visit signal a shift in the balance of power? Some analysts in the Cabinet Office argue Xi is trying to prevent a breakdown. If Pyongyang collapses, Beijing gets a refugee crisis and a nuclear-armed neighbour in chaos. So Xi must keep Kim afloat. That gives Kim leverage.
Inside the Lobby, the betting is on a carefully scripted outcome. Photo ops. A joint statement reaffirming ‘strategic cooperation’. But no major denuclearisation breakthrough. The UK’s position remains aligned with Washington: maximum pressure until Pyongyang gives up its nukes. But Downing Street is quietly worried that Xi might offer a lifeline that undermines that strategy.
One Foreign Office mandarin told me last night: “Xi will smile and shake hands. He will promise economic support. But he will not push Kim on denuclearisation. That would weaken his own hand against America.” The Chinese playbook is long-term. They want a stable North Korea that remains dependent on China. Not a reformed one that might pivot to Seoul or Washington.
Backbench MPs are restless. The China Select Committee is already demanding a briefing. Labour’s shadow foreign secretary is calling for a statement. The PM’s spokesman offered only: “We are monitoring the visit closely.” Classic duck and weave.
What really matters is what happens behind closed doors. Look for leaks from Pyongyang over the next 48 hours. If Kim secures a new aid package without concessions, the UK will have to recalibrate. If Xi extracts a promise to freeze testing, that is a win for the West. But don’t hold your breath.
The bottom line: this is a game of chicken. Both leaders need something. Both are skilled at playing weak hands. The UK’s interest is to avoid a split with Washington while keeping a channel open to Beijing. The Treasury is also nervous. Chinese investment is up for grabs. No one wants to spook the dragon.
Stay tuned. The Lobby will be swarming with leaks by lunchtime. I will be in the Strangers’ Bar if you need me.
