In New Delhi, a meeting of consequence unfolded today between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly. The agenda was dominated by energy security and the looming spectre of a formalized trade agreement between two of the world's largest economies. The UK, post-Brexit, finds itself in a position of strategic necessity, seeking new partnerships to secure its energy supply chain and diversify imports away from volatile regions.
India, a nation of 1.4 billion, faces the dual challenge of lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty while navigating the treacherous waters of climate commitments. The data is stark: India's primary energy demand is projected to grow by 3% annually through 2030, adding the equivalent of the entire EU's current energy consumption.
This growth is a thermodynamic reality, not a policy option. The meeting's subtext was the global reordering of energy alliances, where hydrocarbons and renewables coexist in a tense, asymmetrical dance. The UK's offer of clean technology transfer and green finance is a calculated move, aiming to embed itself in India's solar and hydrogen buildout, which will require estimated $1 trillion in investments by 2030.
Yet, the elephant in the room remains India's coal dependence: 70% of its electricity generation. Climate scientists, I among them, have run the numbers. Even with aggressive renewables deployment, coal's phase-down in India will extend past 2050.
That is the hard physics of base load and battery storage costs. The new supply chain of critical minerals, from lithium to rare earths, will be the terrain of this strategic partnership. A UK-India free trade agreement, if concluded, could unlock lower tariffs for Indian steel and pharmaceuticals in exchange for UK services and green tech.
But the energy clause will be the hinge. The rub is carbon pricing, a mechanism the UK champions but India views as an imposition on its development pathway. The temperature in the room was controlled, but the ambient pressure of global heating permeated every exchange.
Today's meeting did not produce a binding accord. Instead, it laid the track for a longer diplomatic journey. The trade deal remains on the 2025 horizon.
What was clear: the era of cheap, secure energy is over. Every nation now confronts the trilemma of affordability, reliability, and sustainability. The outcomes will be measured in gigatons of CO2 and degrees Celsius, not just in trade volumes.
