The quiet men in grey suits at Number 10 are studying Amsterdam. Not for the coffee shops. For the jobs data.
The Dutch youth unemployment rate has been below 6% for the best part of a decade. A fraction of Britain's stubborn 11% figure for 18-24 year olds. And now, well-placed sources confirm, a package modelled on the 'Dutch Model' is being dusted off by Jeremy Hunt's Treasury team.
What is the Dutch Model? Simplified: a hybrid apprenticeship-contract, subsidised by the state, with strict conditions. A young person gets a job, the state pays half the wage for the first year. But the employer must provide training. And the young person cannot refuse three reasonable offers or risk losing benefits.
One senior DWP official described it to me as 'the toughest love on the block with a government cheque attached.'
But will it fly here? The politics are brittle. The Labour party, scenting a by-election win in Rishi Sunak's backyard, has already briefed internally that this is 'austerity in disguise.' A backbench Tory MP from the Red Wall told me: 'We cannot be seen to copy the continent. Our voters want British solutions.'
The reality is more complicated. The Chancellor is under immense pressure from the OBR forecasts. The cost of the current youth schemes, the Kickstart successor programmes, is ballooning. And the Prime Minister needs a headline. A big reform to own.
The Dutch blueprint comes with a catch. It works best in a flexible labour market with strong employer partnerships. Britain's business lobby is fragmented. The CBI is still recovering from its internal scandals. And the Institute of Directors is cautious about any new tax burdens.
One former No 10 adviser, now at a think tank, put it bluntly: 'The Dutch have a culture of compromise. We have a culture of Punch and Judy. This needs time to bed in. But the PM doesn't have time.'
Yet the data is seductive. Netherlands youth unemployment has been below 5% for months. Their GDP per hour worked is higher. Their NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) figure is almost half of Britain's.
The political calculation is clear. If Sunak can sell this as a tough love, back-to-work plan, he wins the centre ground. If it looks like a handout to employers, the Labour attack ads write themselves.
A government source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: 'We are looking at models that work. Frankly, we don't care where they come from. We care about results.'
The mood in the lobby is sceptical. This has all the hallmarks of a policy that will be heavily watered down by the time it reaches the Commons. A classic Whitehall game: leak the radical version, then compromise, then claim victory.
But the clock is ticking. The Prime Minister needs a win. The Dutch model might just be it. Or it might be another well-intentioned policy that dies in the committee corridor.
Watch this space. The Treasury will confirm details within the fortnight.
