The British-backed Gaza ceasefire is hanging by a thread tonight. Word from Tel Aviv is stark: Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed the IDF to seize control of 70% of the enclave within 72 hours. The move, described by one Whitehall source as a 'land grab in all but name,' risks torching months of painstaking diplomacy led by the Foreign Office.
Let me paint you the scene. In the Lobby, the mood is grim. The PM’s team had been quietly confident that the ceasefire, brokered with Qatari and Egyptian intermediaries, would hold. They were banking on it to shift the political narrative: a foreign policy win to distract from a stagnant domestic agenda. Now that confidence looks like hubris.
Here is what we know. The order was issued late last night from the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem. It instructs the IDF to push into new sectors, including densely populated areas around Khan Younis and central Gaza. The stated rationale: destroying remaining Hamas infrastructure. But the scale is unprecedented. 70% would effectively turn Gaza into a patchwork of Israeli-controlled zones.
A senior diplomatic source put it bluntly: 'This is a wrecking ball. We were trying to build a house of cards, and Bibi has just blown it down.' The source added that the UK had been given no prior warning. 'We were told the IDF was planning a phased withdrawal. Instead, they are escalating by an order of magnitude.'
What does this mean for Westminster? Chaos. The ceasefire was already a fragile coalition of interests. Labour had reluctantly backed it, while Tory backbenchers remained split between pro-Israel hawks and humanitarian doves. Now expect the knives to come out. I am hearing from one former minister that a group of backbench Conservatives is already drafting a letter demanding the UK condemn the Israeli move unequivocally. 'We cannot be seen to be complicit in land grabs,' they say.
Downing Street’s response so far has been studiedly cautious. The official line: 'We are urgently seeking clarification from our Israeli counterparts.' But the subtext is panic. The PM is due to face PMQs tomorrow, and the opposition will smell blood. Starmer will not have to attack the government for once; he can simply ask where the 'special relationship' has gone.
The timing could not be worse. The UK had been positioning itself as a key mediator, with the Foreign Secretary shuttling between Ramallah and Tel Aviv. That credibility is now in tatters. British diplomats on the ground are reportedly furious. One told me: 'We have been lied to. We staked our reputation on this ceasefire, and our allies just pulled the rug.'
What next? The machinery of state is in emergency mode. The National Security Council is due to meet within the hour. Options on the table include a joint statement with France and Germany, a UN Security Council resolution, or even the threat of sanctions against Israeli officials. But let’s be real. The UK’s leverage is limited. Netanyahu is not listening to London. He is listening to Washington.
And there is the rub. Biden’s team has been publicly supportive but privately furious. A call between the US President and Netanyahu is described as 'frosty.' The question is whether the US will blink. If they do, the ceasefire is dead. If they push back, we might see a climbdown. But given Netanyahu’s current coalition, any retreat could topple his government.
For now, the mood in Whitehall is one of grim resignation. The game has changed. The supposed endpoint of a two-state solution now looks like a fantasy. One veteran diplomat summed it up: 'We are back to square one. Except square one is now rubble.'
I will keep you posted as this develops. The next 48 hours will be critical. Eleanor Rigby, Political Bureau Chief.
