The collapse of nuclear negotiations with Iran could lead to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz within days, Downing Street has warned. The strategic waterway, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, is the lifeblood of global energy markets. A blockade would send petrol prices soaring across Britain, hitting families already struggling with the cost of living crisis.
For the North of England, where wages have stagnated for a decade, the impact would be brutal. A litre of petrol already costs more than £1.50 in many areas. Truck drivers, delivery workers, and commuters face an immediate squeeze on household budgets. The government's own analysis suggests a prolonged blockade could add 20p to a litre within a fortnight. That is money taken out of pockets, not spent on rent or food.
Unions have reacted with alarm. The TUC warned that workers cannot afford another shock to prices. Sharon Graham, Unite's general secretary, said working people are already maxed out. Drivers who rely on their vehicles for work such as taxi drivers and small business owners would be hit first, she added. There is no slack in the system.
The Foreign Office has been working frantically to salvage the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA. Talks in Vienna have stalled over demands for sanctions relief and guarantees on Iran's nuclear programme. The US has warned of consequences if Iran follows through on threats to close the strait. But with no deal in sight, the risk is tangible.
This is not just a foreign policy crisis. It is a kitchen table crisis. Fuel price rises feed directly into inflation, which is already stubbornly high at 4 per cent. The Bank of England frets about wage demands. But workers need higher wages to keep up. This is a cycle that punishes the lowest paid most.
The government must prepare contingency plans. That means releasing fuel from the Strategic Reserve, capping margins at the pumps, and supporting those who cannot afford to fill their tanks. The alternative is a return to the scenes of last year: queues at petrol stations, panic buying, and empty shelves.
For now, the PM is urging calm. But the clock is ticking. Every day without a deal brings the blockade closer. And when it comes, the real economy will feel it first.
