The Democratic Republic of Congo has filed a case at the International Court of Justice against neighbouring Rwanda. The move escalates a long-running feud over alleged support for rebel groups. The UK has called for a peaceful resolution. But do not expect the fighting to stop anytime soon.
This is the culmination of years of tension. Kinshasa accuses Kigali of backing the M23 rebels. The rebels have seized swathes of territory in eastern Congo. Rwanda denies the charges. It points the finger at Congo for harbouring Hutu militias.
The ICJ case is a political gambit. President Tshisekedi needs a win at home. His approval ratings are sliding. Security is crumbling. The economy is in tatters. Taking Rwanda to court plays well with his base. It deflects from his own failings.
But the court move is symbolic. The ICJ can take years to rule. Even if it finds against Rwanda, there is no enforcement mechanism. Kigali will ignore it. The conflict will continue.
Behind the scenes, Western powers are worried. The UK Foreign Office issued a statement calling for dialogue. But they know the real driving forces. Mineral wealth. Regional power plays. Old ethnic grievances.
The timing is interesting. The UK is pushing for a new UN resolution on the Great Lakes region. France is also engaged. Both want to appear proactive. But neither has the appetite for a serious intervention.
Here is the inside track. The Foreign Office is split. Some officials want to isolate Rwanda. Others see Kigali as a key partner in the region. The UK has a large aid programme in Rwanda. There are concerns about upsetting that relationship.
Downing Street is carefully avoiding direct criticism of Rwanda. They use the phrase 'all parties' when urging restraint. That is code for 'Rwanda but we will not say it.'
The real battle is in the eastern Congo. The M23 is advancing. They are better armed and trained than the Congolese army. Kinshasa has hired mercenaries from Eastern Europe to fight back. It is a proxy war with global connections.
The ICJ case will drag on. Meanwhile, the killing continues. Civilians displaced. Mines seized. The conflict enriches warlords and foreign corporations.
The UK's call for peace rings hollow. No one is willing to pay the cost of stopping the war. The diplomats will talk. The lawyers will argue. The guns will keep firing.
The key to watch is the UN Security Council. If the UK and France push for sanctions on Rwanda, that would be a real shift. But do not hold your breath. The economic interests are too deep.
For now, this is theatre. The ICJ judges will hear arguments. The diplomats will make statements. But the power dynamics will not change. The game continues.
