The World Health Organisation has sounded a Level 3 emergency as the Democratic Republic of Congo faces a catastrophic collision between a resurgent mpox outbreak and escalating armed conflict. This is not merely a humanitarian crisis: it is a strategic threat vector that could destabilise Central Africa, with British aid teams now bracing for a logistical nightmare. The convergence of biological and kinetic warfare is a classic asymmetrical play by hostile actors exploiting state weakness.
M23 rebels, backed by Rwandan forces, have seized key towns in North Kivu, displacing hundreds of thousands. Camps for internally displaced persons are now breeding grounds for mpox, with the virus spreading at rates unseen since the 2022 global outbreak. The WHO has recorded over 12,000 suspected cases in 2024 alone. A mortality rate of 3% among children under five makes this a demographic weapon.
British aid teams are pre-positioning medical supplies in Goma, but the security situation is untenable. The airport is within range of rebel artillery. The UK's Department for International Development has activated a rapid response team, but their mobility is compromised by roadblocks and IED threats. This is a logistics failure waiting to happen.
Intelligence sources indicate that the rebels are deliberately targeting health infrastructure. Three clinics have been looted, and two aid workers have been abducted. This is a textbook hostile actor operation: fracturing the state by weaponising disease. The Congolese military, already stretched thin, cannot secure both the frontlines and the vaccination sites.
The strategic pivot point is the border with Uganda and Rwanda. The mpox strain is highly transmissible and could spill over into the Great Lakes region. Uganda's refugee camps are critical infrastructure: an outbreak there would overwhelm medical resources and create a new wave of displacement. The British military's 2nd Battalion, The Yorkshire Regiment, is on standby in Kenya for potential non-combatant evacuation operations.
We are seeing a failure of early warning systems. The WHO flagged the mpox resurgence in March, but funding shortfalls delayed vaccine deployment. Now, with the conflict, we have a perfect storm. The UK must accelerate the delivery of 50,000 Jynneos vaccines, but cold chain logistics in a combat zone are a nightmare. Power outages at Goma's main hospital could render vaccines useless.
The medical and military response must be integrated. The UK should deploy a field hospital under force protection, treating both mpox and trauma cases. This is not a purely humanitarian mission: it is a strategic imperative to prevent a failed state on Europe's doorstep. The last time Congo collapsed, the Great Lakes War killed 5 million. We cannot afford history repeating.
British aid teams are courageous, but courage does not stop bullets or viruses. The government must treat this as a national security priority, not a charity appeal. The chess pieces are moving, and the West is reacting a move too late.
