The government has quietly adopted a Dutch-style approach to youth unemployment. It’s called the ‘no dead ends’ model. The name says it all.
Whitehall sources confirm the policy will be rolled out in pilot areas from next spring. It targets 18-24 year olds not in education, employment or training – the so-called NEETs. The Dutch model guarantees every young person a job, apprenticeship, or training place within six months of becoming unemployed. No opt-outs. No delays.
Why the sudden shift? Polling shows youth unemployment is a ticking electoral bomb. Labour is ahead among under-30s by 25 points. The Treasury is nervous. So Number 10 has signed off on a plan that had been gathering dust in the Department for Work and Pensions for two years.
The mechanics are brutal. Local authorities will be mandated to find placements. Private providers face stiff penalties for failing to deliver. The Dutch experience shows it works – youth joblessness in the Netherlands is half the UK rate.
But there’s a catch. The policy is expensive. Upfront costs are estimated at £2 billion per year. The Treasury is only offering £500 million in the current spending review. Insiders say the gap will be filled by raiding the Apprenticeship Levy. That has business groups furious.
Then there’s the political cost. The ‘no dead ends’ model is interventionist. It forces employers to take on young people they might otherwise reject. Conservative backbenchers are already muttering about “nanny state” economics. One senior Tory MP told me: “It’s a jobs guarantee dressed up in Dutch clogs.”
The real story is the power struggle behind the scenes. Work and Pensions Secretary Sir Iain Duncan Smith is the architect. He briefed the plan to cabinet last month, bypassing the Chancellor entirely. The Treasury was livid. They say the costings are fanciful. They fear it sets a precedent for more state spending.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is playing his usual game. He’s made vague supportive noises but refuses to commit to full funding. He knows the policy polls well. He also knows it divides his party.
The Labour reaction has been schadenfreude. Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Jonathan Reynolds called it “too little, too late”. He accused the government of “plagiarising Dutch success while cutting British services”.
But here’s what nobody is saying: the Dutch model only works because of strict labour market rules. The Netherlands has powerful unions and high minimum wages. The UK has neither. Adapting the policy to British conditions means hollowing out some of its core principles.
A leaked DWP briefing paper warns that “full replication is neither feasible nor desirable”. Translation: we’re going to water it down.
What to watch. First, the pilot results due next autumn. Second, the backbench rebellion when the vote comes. Third, the Treasury’s final bill. The game is just beginning.
For now, the government has a shiny new policy. Whether it survives contact with reality is another question.
