The International Criminal Court has fixed a date for Rodrigo Duterte’s trial. November. That is when the former Philippine strongman will face charges of crimes against humanity over his bloody war on drugs. The move is a watershed moment for international justice. But it is also a diplomatic grenade.
London has been clear. The UK government, through the Foreign Office, issued a carefully worded statement backing the ICC process. ‘Full support for the court’s independence and impartiality,’ they said. That is code for: we are not backing down on accountability. It is a win for the pro-ICC lobby inside Whitehall, who have been pushing for a robust line against autocrats.
Manila is furious. The current administration, led by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has called the trial a violation of national sovereignty. ‘We will not surrender our jurisdiction,’ Marcos said in a press briefing. That is the official line. But the real fear is political. Duterte still commands a loyal base. A conviction could ignite unrest. A trial could expose uncomfortable truths about the security forces that remain in power.
Inside the lobby, ears are pricked. The UK’s stance is not cost free. Trade deals with Manila are on the table. Post-Brexit Britain is hungry for new markets. Yet the message is that human rights cannot be traded away. That is a bet. It assumes the public cares more about principle than pork exports.
The polling data is murky. Most Britons will struggle to place the Philippines on a map. But among the chattering classes, the Duterte trial is a test case. Will the ICC survive its critics? The US has sanctioned its prosecutors. China has sought to undermine it. A successful trial would be a shot in the arm for the rules-based order. A failure would be a blow.
Backbench whispers suggest Labour is watching. They want to ensure the government does not wobble. The Liberal Democrats are already calling for stronger measures. Meanwhile, Tory backbenchers are divided. Some see the ICC as an affront to sovereign courts. Others relish the chance to bash a foreign strongman. The eurosceptic wing is oddly quiet, perhaps because they do not want to be seen defending an authoritarian.
Duterte himself has been characteristically bluster. ‘I will not cooperate,’ he said from his villa in Davao. That threat is hollow. The Philippines is a signatory to the Rome Statute. The ICC has jurisdiction. But arresting him will be a challenge. Manila has not issued a warrant. The trial may proceed in absentia. That suits the narrative either way.
For the UK, this is a moment to lead or to duck. The government has chosen to lead. For now. But the trial is months away. Much can change. The diplomatic cables will be busy. The real game is whether the UK can sustain its position when the commercial pressure mounts. The November date is a promise. Promises in politics are often broken.
Watch this space. The lobby is already buzzing.
