The latest data from the World Health Organisation shows a sharp decline in new Ebola cases in the affected regions. But do not pop the champagne just yet. Whitehall sources tell me the situation remains fragile. Too fragile for comfort.
Downing Street has been quietly monitoring the outbreak since March. The official line is calm. The reality is different. A senior health official described the situation as a ‘tinderbox.’ One misstep. One undetected case. And we could be looking at a full-blown crisis on our shores.
The numbers are encouraging. Of course they are. New infections in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo have dropped by nearly half in the past fortnight. Contact tracing is improving. The experimental vaccine is working. But the experts I spoke to this morning are cautious. ‘The virus has a habit of surprising us,’ one epidemiologist told me. ‘We thought we had it beaten in 2014. Then it came back with a vengeance.’
And therein lies the fear. The UK’s preparedness has been tested before. The 2014 outbreak exposed gaping holes in our quarantine protocols. The subsequent inquiry was brutal. Since then, investments have been made. A dedicated Ebola treatment centre in Sierra Leone. Stockpiles of PPE. A rapid response team on standby. But is it enough? One Whitehall source put it bluntly: ‘We are better prepared. But we are not prepared enough.’
The political calculation is delicate. Boris Johnson is keen to avoid panic. Memories of the ‘stay at home’ orders are still raw. Any suggestion of a new health emergency could spook the markets. And the voters. So the messaging has been carefully calibrated. ‘We are monitoring the situation closely.’ ‘Public health is our priority.’ But behind closed doors, contingency plans are being dusted off.
I have seen the memo. Circulated last week to senior cabinet ministers. It outlines three scenarios. Scenario one: contained outbreak within the affected region. Scenario two: isolated cases in Europe. Scenario three: widespread transmission. The document is classified, of course. But the tone is sobering. ‘We must prepare for all outcomes,’ it reads. ‘The virus respects no borders.’
The real worry is the unknown. The vaccine works against the Zaire strain. But what about the other strains? What about mutations? The WHO has confirmed no mutations yet. But they are watching. Everyone is watching.
For now, the numbers are falling. But as one veteran health correspondent whispered to me over a pint last night: ‘It’s not that simple. It never is.’ And he should know. He’s seen this movie before.
