The Democratic Republic of Congo is once again grappling with an Ebola outbreak, this time in the volatile eastern region. With 65 confirmed deaths and the case fatality rate climbing, this is not merely a public health crisis. It is a strategic pivot point for hostile actors to exploit state fragility.
The DRC's eastern provinces, already a nexus for armed groups and geopolitical contestation, now face a dual threat: the virus itself and the operational vacuum it creates. Healthcare infrastructure in North Kivu and Ituri is skeletal. The recent withdrawal of WHO emergency funding due to donor fatigue has left a gap that non-state actors are ready to fill.
I assess this as a high-probability vector for biosecurity failure. The logistical chain for vaccine distribution is vulnerable to interdiction by militias. Meanwhile, misinformation campaigns on social media are undermining containment efforts.
This outbreak is a stress test for regional readiness, and the early indicators are not promising. The strategic implications extend beyond Congo's borders. A sustained epidemic could destabilise the Great Lakes region, creating displacement flows that stress Uganda and Rwanda.
The lack of a coordinated international response is a intelligence failure waiting to happen.
